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GST Monitor: GST collections stood at INR1.85t in Jun’25

Grew 6.2% vs. 16.4% in May’25

* India’s GST collections stood at INR1.85t in Jun’25 (vs. INR2.01t in May’25 and INR1.7t in Jun’24), up 6.2% YoY, though noticeably lower than the peak collections of more than INR2t seen in Apr’25 and May’25. The moderation reflects post– year-end normalization (largely seasonal) and softer domestic demand. The decrease in Jun’25 GST collections YoY was mainly due to lower collections on domestic transactions (Exhibit 1).

* In Jun’25, CGST collections amounted to INR345.6b, up 5.9% YoY (vs. 5.2% YoY in Jun’24), and SGST collections stood at INR432.7b, up 6.3% YoY (same in Jun’24). IGST collections amounted to INR932.8b, up 6.8% YoY (vs. 8.7% YoY in Apr’24; Exhibit 2).

* GST collected on domestic activities grew 4.7% in Jun’25 vs. 9.2% growth in Jun’24. GST collected on imports grew 11.4% YoY to INR456.9b in Jun’25 vs. 2.6% YoY growth in Jun’24. GST collected on domestic transactions constituted 77% of total GST receipts in FYTD26 vs. 79% in the same period last year and 76.4% in FY25 (Exhibit 3).

* Despite a moderation in Jun’25, GST collections for 1QFY26 totaled INR6.2t, up 11.8% YoY, suggesting a stable fiscal position going into 2QFY26.

* For FY26, the GoI has budgeted 11% growth, implying GST receipts of INR24.5t or monthly receipts of INR2.0t (Exhibit 4). We believe the FY26BE target is achievable. GST collections in FY26 are expected to remain strong, supported by steady economic growth, better tax compliance, and increased formalization of businesses. Import-led tax buoyancy, expanding digital footprint (e-invoicing, AI audits), and reduced evasion are expected to drive revenue further. However, net revenue growth may remain moderate due to elevated refund claims, especially from exporters. Rationalization of tax slabs, potential inclusion of petroleum and electricity under GST, and better state-Centre coordination will shape medium-term trends.

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