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Trade deficit lowest in three months

Led by deceleration import growth

* Merchandise exports declined 1.0% YoY to USD38.0b in Dec’24 (vs. USD32.1b in Nov’24 and USD38.4b in Dec’23), led by a seventh consecutive drop in petroleum exports (-28.6% YoY in Dec’24 vs. -49.7%/-17.5% in Nov’24/Dec’23) and a second consecutive fall in gems & jewelry exports (-26.5% YoY in Dec’24 vs. -26.3%/14.0% in Nov’24/Dec’23). Additionally, growth of non-oil non-gold exports decelerated to 5.1% YoY in Dec’24 from 7.7%/5.9% in Nov’24/Dec’23 (Exhibit 1).

* Major drivers of merchandise exports growth in Dec’24 were electronic goods, engineering goods, rice, RMG of all textiles and cotton yarn, handloom products, etc. In Apr-Dec’24, exports stood at USD321.8b (up 1.6% YoY) compared to USD316.6b in Apr-Dec’23 (down 5.8%).

* Merchandise imports stood at USD60b in Dec’24 (up 4.9% YoY) vs. USD65b (18% YoY) in Nov’24. Notably, Nov’24 imports were revised downward from USD70b (27% YoY) due to a downward revision in gold import figures to USD9.9b from USD14.8b earlier. In Dec’24, gold imports stood at USD4.7b, higher by 55.4% YoY.

* On the other hand, growth in petroleum imports decelerated to 2.2% YoY in Dec’24 to USD15.3b vs. USD16.1b (7.9% YoY)/USD14.9b (-22.8% YoY) in Nov’24/Dec’23 (Exhibit 2). Notably, non-oil non-gold imports stood at USD40b in Dec’24 (up 2.0% YoY) vs. USD39b in Nov’24 (6.2% YoY) and USD39.2b in Dec’23 (-3.7% YoY). Imports of Coal, Coke & Briquettes (- 43.42%), Pearls, Precious & Semi-Precious Stones (-42.02%), Iron & Steel (-18.58%), Project Goods (-12.4%), Leather & Leather Products (-12.33%), Artificial Resins, Plastic Materials, Etc. (-3.8%), Transport Equipment (-0.96%), Fertilizers, Crude & Manufactured (-0.89%) and Non-Ferrous Metals (-0.47%) contracted YoY in Dec’24.

* Consequently, the merchandise trade deficit widened to USD21.9b in Dec’24 (vs. USD18.8b in Dec’23 and USD32.8b in Nov’24). However, the trade deficit in Dec’24 was the lowest in three months, led by a deceleration in import growth. Notably, Nov’24 trade deficit was revised downward to USD32.8b from USD37.8b on the back of a revision in gold imports. The merchandise trade deficit for Dec’24 was lower than the market consensus of USD25.6b (Exhibit 3).

* In Apr-Dec’24, exports grew 1.6% vs. a contraction of 5.8% in the same period last year. On the other hand, imports grew faster at 5.4% in Apr-Dec’24 vs. a contraction of 7.7% in Apr-Dec’23. Consequently, the merchandise trade deficit widened to USD211.8b in Apr-Dec’24 vs. USD189.7b in Apr-Dec’23 (Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 1: Exports contracted 1.0% YoY in Dec’24

Exhibit 2: Imports rose 4.9% YoY in Dec’24 vs. 18% in Nov’24

Exhibit 3: Trade deficit widened to USD21.9b in Dec’24

Exhibit 4: Imports grew faster than exports in Apr-Dec’24

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