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The CME Fedwatch Tool is backing a rate cut in September, with odds now standing at 59.5% for a 25 basis point cut - HDFC Securities
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Market Roundup
* The Indian rupee is expected to open steady around 83.46 following muted price action in the region. The risk-on sentiments, expectations of foreign fund inflows and better-than-expected current account data can support the rupee while higher crude oil prices and a stronger greenback may weigh on it.
* Spot USDINR little changed at 83.47 amid a recovery in the domestic equity indices.
* Technical spot USDINR has support at 83.30 and resistance at 83.70. The medium-term bias remains bullish while the short-term consolidation in the range of 83.30 to 83.70 could continue.
* India’s current account balance recorded a surplus of $5.7 billion (0.6% GDP) in Q4 FY24 against a deficit of $1.3 billion (0.2% GDP) a year ago. Overall, India’s FY24 current account deficit moderated to $23.2 billion (0.7% GDP) from $67.0 billion (2% GDP) in FY23.
* Forex:
* A key gauge of the dollar posted its worst one-day drop since mid-May amid quarter-end flows, lower Treasury yields and gains in higher-yielding emerging-market currencies.
* Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that 2024’s inflation prints have not inspired much confidence when viewed in the aggregate, though recent prints have shown promise
* European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel downplayed the likelihood that interest rates in the eurozone will take a significantly different path from those in the US.
* The CME Fedwatch Tool is backing a rate cut in September, with odds now standing at 59.5% for a 25 basis point cut. A rate pause stands at a 34.1% chance, while a 50-basis-point rate cut has a slim 6.4% possibility.
* Equities:
* Shares in Asia edged higher to defy a mixed day on Wall Street as speculation gained that the tech sector rally may be running out of steam.
Commodities:
* In commodities, oil climbed, with a softer dollar and rising tensions with Russia providing support.
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