Focus shifts to Q3 GDP estimate today, guiding US economy, Fed outlook - HDFC Sescurities Ltd
GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP
* Gold and silver soared to all-time highs, as escalating geopolitical tensions and bets on further US rate cuts added momentum to the best annual performance in more than four decades. Robust central bank purchases and sustained ETF inflows have also underpinned the rally. The latest push higher comes as traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026. Rising geopolitical tensions are also enhancing the haven appeal of gold and silver. We expect bullish momentum will continue in bullion, driven by a strong macro and technical setup. However, investors should remain cautious in the short term regarding this euphoric price movement.
* Crude oil advanced as the US intensified a blockade on Venezuela, with American forces boarding one tanker and pursuing another within weeks of capturing a vessel. Geopolitical risk premiums have helped put a floor under oil prices, which have dropped by about a fifth this year due to oversupply and slowing demand growth. Crude oil prices are expected to recover from their current lower levels in today's session
* Natural gas reversed earlier gains and dropped to a new swing low on Monday due to warmer weather in the U.S., which is expected to reduce heating demand for natural gas. The overall weather outlook remains bearish for the period from December 29-31 and January 1-4.
* LME Copper reached a new high, nearing $12,000 per ton on Monday, buoyed by tight supply and an optimistic long-term demand forecast. Concerns about supply heightened after Chilean miner Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed to zero processing fees for 2026, the lowest recorded level in annual negotiations.
* Market participants are now focusing on the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, which is scheduled for release later today. This report could provide further insights into the health of the US economy and the anticipated direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Gold
* Trading Range: 135450 to 139380
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Gold Mini Jan Fut at 135480-135500 SL 134980 Target 136425/136900
Silver
* Trading Range: 213700 to 217425
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Silver Mini Feb Fut at 215325-215350 SL 214100 Target 216150/216900
Crude Oil
* Trading Range: 5175 to 5325
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Crude Oil Jan Fut at 5200-5205 SL 5145 Target 5275/5319
Natural Gas
* Trading Range: 333 to 372
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell c Dec Fut at 362-365 SL 372 Target 350/345
Copper
* Trading Range: 1115 to 1133
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Copper Dec Fut at 1119.5-1120 SL 1115.25 Target 1125/1127.8
Zinc
* Trading Range: 300.50 to 307
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Zinc Dec Fut at 303 SL 301.75 Target 305.50/307
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