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Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, we have assessed a stress scenario where global crude oil prices sustain above $130 per barrel. Such a scenario could have meaningful macroeconomic implications for India, which is heavily dependent on imported crude oil.

At the sectoral level, the impact would primarily flow through two key channels: higher input cost and macro-driven demand moderation. Energy-intensive industries are likely to experience margin pressures due to rising fuel and logistics costs, while sectors linked to discretionary spending or construction activity could face demand volatility if inflation and interest rates rise.

In this report, we analyse the potential implications of a sustained $130/bbl crude environment on the sectors under our coverage. Our analysis also highlights which companies may remain relatively insulated from this situation.

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