Accmulate Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd For Target Rs. 325 by Prabhudas Liladhar Capital Ltd
EBITDA beat; Crude requirement secured until Jul’26
Refining throughput stood at 10.4mmt, broadly in line with our estimate (PLe: 10.5mmt), remaining flat QoQ and declining 1.7% YoY. Reported GRM (pre-SAED implementation on 27th Mar’26) improved sharply to USD18.0/bbl in Q4FY26 from USD13.2/bbl in Q3FY26, supported by stronger crack spreads amid West Asia war. However, implied GMM softened to INR5.6/ltr from INR6.2/ltr in Q3FY26 primarily due to higher crude oil prices in Mar’26. EBITDA came in at INR100.6bn, (PLe: INR61.4bn; BBGe: INR77.9bn) (+29.6% YoY, -13.8% QoQ) despite a forex loss of INR9.4bn, driven by stronger refining performance. Reported PAT declined to INR31.9bn (-57.7% QoQ; flat YoY) due to higher interest costs and an impairment charge of INR43.5bn related to BPRL. Adjusted PAT stood at INR64.5bn increasing 41.7% YoY while declining 14.5% QoQ. On crude sourcing, BPCL increased its Russian crude mix to >40% as of May’26 (Q3FY26: 25%; Q4FY26: 31%) with all crude requirements secured through Jul’26. We revise our assumptions and now build in GRM of USD7.1/6.8/bbl (earlier: USD7.7/7.5/bbl) and GMM of INR2.4/4.5/ltr (earlier: INR5.3/5.0/ltr) for FY27E/FY28E, reflecting a weaker near-term outlook. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating and revise our target price to INR325 (earlier: INR332), based on 1.3x FY28E P/BV.
Throughput and Domestic volumes remain mixed:
Refining throughput stood at 10.4mmt is in line with our estimate (PLe: 10.5mmt) vs. flat QoQ (10.5mmt in Q2FY26) and down 1.7% YoY (10.6mmt in Q3FY25). Domestic market sales volume at 13.9mmt is in line with our estimates (PLe: 14.0mmt), down 1.5% QoQ and up 3.3% YoY. In FY26, utilization stood at 116% with refined throughput of 41.15 MMT
Refining margins improve:
Reported GRM (before factoring the impact of Special Additional Excise Duty and Road & Infrastructure Cess, levied w.e.f. 27th March 2026 ) increased to USD18.0/bbl in Q4FY26 led by strong crack spreads (PLe: USD20.2/bbl), vs. USD13.2/bbl in Q3FY26 and USD9.2/bbl in Q4FY25. On FY26 basis, GRM improved to USD11.7/bbl (before SAED) vs USD6.8/bbl YoY
GMM declines QoQ/YoY:
GMM declined ~10.9%, QoQ and 6.6% YoY, to INR5.2/ltr, likely impacted by higher rupee depreciation and higher crude oil prices due to Wes Asia disruption against a stagnant RSP price in the month of Mar’26. On FY26 basis, GMM improved 14.7% YoY to INR6.8/ltr
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SEBI Registration No. INH000000271Accumulate Paradeep Phosphates Ltd For Target Rs.141 by Prabhudas Liladhar Capital Ltd
