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While the ongoing ME crisis remains a key overhang for port operators, its impact on Q4FY26 earnings would be limited. For logistics companies, increased competitive intensity, amid rising cost pressures, would result in only a mid-to-high single-digit growth in revenue, ex-Delhivery. APSEZ’s Q4 volume growth (+10% YoY) continues to outpace that of major ports (+4% YoY), while we expect JSW Infra’s overall volume to be in-line (impact of shut down of the Fujairah terminal in Mar-26). We forecast APSEZ/JSW Infra’s revenue to grow 15%/16% YoY, aided by non-port revenue, while margins are likely to contract by 292/362bps, respectively. As highlighted in our monthly report (link), the current disruption has led to a spike in container shipping rates in Mar-26 (up 20% from the Feb-26 lows) which, we believe, could impact trade volumes in FY27. For Delhivery, we expect yet another strong quarter, as the volume growth trajectory improves in both B2C/B2B segments on the back of pause in insourcing and continued market-share gains. We believe competitive intensity in the B2B industry should keep revenue growth subdued for other surface LSPs under our coverage (TCIE, VRLL), while margins would contract sequentially for all logistics players amid rising cost pressures. Management commentary around mitigating rising cost pressures (fuel and wages) and its impact on profitability would remain a key monitorable.

Adani Ports (BUY; TP: Rs1,900)

We anticipate 15% YoY revenue growth, underpinned by 14%/87%/106% YoY growth in the logistics/marine/international ports segments, while domestic ports should see a subdued quarter as ME crisis impacts volumes in Mar-26. For Mundra, 15% volumes are linked to ME trade, while 50% of the overall crude and gas portfolio is linked to the Strait of Hormuz. While we expect the impact of the ME crisis to be limited for Mar-26, any extension of the conflict would result in contraction of volumes/profitability in FY27E, in our view. EBITDA margin is likely to contract by 292bps YoY to 56.1%, given higher contribution of its lower-margin non-ports business. We await management commentary on timelines for the brownfield expansion in Mundra, Krishnapatnam, and Dhamra. We keep our revenue/EBITDA estimate for FY27/28 largely unchanged. We retain BUY and maintain our SOTP-based TP of Rs1,900 (implying 15x Dec-27E EV/EBITDA).

JSW Infra (ADD; TP: Rs300)

We expect 16% YoY revenue growth, driven by port/logistics revenues growing 12%/52% YoY. However, port volumes are expected to remain subdued with a 4% YoY increase, primarily due to closure of the Fujairah terminal in Mar-26 and stagnant iron-ore exports impacting the Paradip terminal. We expect EBITDA margin to decline by ~360bps YoY owing to higher contribution of its non-ports business (lower margin vs ports) as well as port margins declining by ~500bps as the company accelerates investments toward capacity expansion. Further, given that the Fujairah liquid business is a high-margin segment, any disruption could lead to a disproportionate compression of profitability, in our view. The recent drone incident underscores the company’s vulnerability to the conflict, as the region contributes 6/7% of FY25 volumes/revenues. We retain ADD and our SOTP-based TP of Rs300 (implying 18x Dec-27E EV/EBITDA). We cut our FY27 revenue/EBITDA estimates by 3%/4% owing to the direct exposure of assets in ME.

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