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We forecast ~6% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY26 for companies under our coverage, with overall results to be better QoQ. Indian chemical companies’ exports over Jan-Mar-26 recovered, owing to price increase across several products, mainly due to the ME conflict and VAT rebate cut by the Chinese government in some value chains. While raw material availability remains a challenge in Q1FY27, Q4 performance should be better, owing to available inventory in the system. Inorganic chain products like caustic soda and bromine saw substantial price increase owing to the ME conflict, with no constraint in availability of raw materials. Refrigerant businesses continued to enjoy higher pricing in the domestic market due to a firm pricing environment in China; volume growth remained strong YoY/QoQ. We expect DN, Atul, and PI to report better numbers YoY, while NFIL, DFPC, and GHCL would report a weak set. We prefer bulk chemical companies like DN, Aarti, and Atul within our coverage.  

Q4FY26 results – Key expectations

SRF (SRF IN): We expect SRF’s chemical business (CB) revenue to grow 5% YoY (flat QoQ) to Rs24.7bn. This should be primarily led by healthy volume growth in the refrigerant gas business sustained at higher prices, partly offsetting the weaker performance in the specialty chemical business. We expect EBIT margin for CB to be steady at ~28% (vs 27.2% in Q3FY26), led by firm ref gas pricing. The packaging films business (PFB) should see sequential recovery in EBIT margin to 8% vs 7.1% in Q3FY26, led by an increase in polymer prices; volumes should pick up QoQ, with Q4 being seasonally the strongest quarter. We forecast technical textiles business (TTB) revenue to decline ~10% YoY to Rs4.6bn due to pricing pressure in certain products.

PI Industries (PI IN): PI’s CSM business revenue should grow ~8% YoY in Q4FY26E (assuming contract assets to remain constant), led by healthy export volumes across products and partly offset by price declines in pyroxasulfone. In Q4, PI witnessed price correction in pyroxasulfone, while its volumes picked up. We forecast non-pyroxasulfone to report healthy revenue growth QoQ but decline YoY due to a large base. In the domestic agrochemicals business, we expect strong recovery sequentially as regulatory issues should ease in the biologicals business, resulting in revenue of Rs3.6bn (+5% YoY/+37 QoQ). In the pharma business, we forecast its revenue to grow 10% YoY (+56% QoQ) to Rs9.4bn, with Q4 being seasonally the strongest quarter. We expect agrochemical EBIT margin to remain stable YoY at 30% versus 29% in Q4FY25.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN): We expect GFL’s fluoropolymer revenue to maintain its Q3 run rate and grow 5% YoY to Rs7.5bn, driven by steady export volumes. We expect the fluorochemicals business revenue to strongly recover sequentially (+66% QoQ) and to return to Q4FY26 levels to Rs3.3bn, led by the recommissioning of the R32 plant, pick-up in export volumes, and Q4 being seasonally a strong quarter for domestic ref gas demand. We forecast bulk chemicals business revenue to grow 7% YoY to Rs1.7bn, led by an increase in caustic soda ECU in Q4FY26. The battery chemicals segment remains at a nascent stage.

Deepak Nitrite (DN IN): We expect consolidated revenue for to grow moderately (+2% YoY/+4.4% QoQ) to Rs20.6bn, led by sequential recovery in phenolics revenue to Rs14.4bn (+5% YoY/+8% QoQ) on the back of higher phenol-acetone realizations in Q4FY26E, offsetting the weak performance in advanced intermediates (AI) segment. We forecast the AI segment to decline 5% YoY/QoQ to Rs6.2bn, due to weak export volumes. We expect improvement in EBIT margin in Q4 to 9%, led by improvement in phenol-acetone spreads and as benefits of backward integration trickle down in AI business. This should result in EBITDA of Rs2.4bn (+53.3% YoY/+12.9% QoQ).

Navin Fluorine International (NFIL IN): NFIL’s high performance products (HPP) segment will log a weak quarter, with revenue declining 11% QoQ (+13% YoY) to Rs3.7bn. This sequential decline will mainly be led by decline in R32 export volumes, while volumes from the Honeywell contract should be stable. CDMO businesses should continue to perform well, given higher contributions from the molecule under the fermion contract. We forecast CDMO revenue at Rs1.3bn (+15% YoY/+4% QoQ) and specialty chemical business revenue at Rs2.9bn (+15% YoY/-16% QoQ). Due to a change in the business mix, with a decrease in share of the HPP business, we expect a sequential decline in EBITDA margin in Q4FY26E to 31.5% vs 34.5% in Q3FY26 (25.5% in Q4FY25).

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