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The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projects India’s net sugar production for the 2025-26 season at 30.95 million tonnes (mt), up 18.5% from last year. Despite similar ethanol diversion levels, output is boosted by higher cane acreage and strong crop conditions, especially in Maharashtra, where production may surge 39%. With total availability estimated at 35.95 mt against domestic consumption of 28.5 mt, closing stocks are projected at 7.45 mt. ISMA believes India has sufficient surplus for exporting up to 2 mt and has urged the government to announce its export policy soon.

Key Highlights

* ISMA projects net sugar output at 30.95 mt for 2025-26.

* Maharashtra’s gross sugar output may surge 39% to 13 mt.

* Total availability seen at 35.95 mt vs consumption of 28.5 mt.

* India may have export potential of around 2 mt.

* Maharashtra and Karnataka lead production growth; UP output remains steady.

India’s sugar outlook turned brighter as the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projected an 18.5% rise in net sugar output to 30.95 million tonnes (mt) for the 2025-26 season, compared to 26.11 mt last year. The rise comes despite similar ethanol diversion levels of 3.4 mt, supported by improved cane yields and expanded acreage in key producing states

The bullish production outlook, coupled with comfortable stock levels, may keep domestic sugar prices under mild pressure in the near term. ISMA estimates total sugar availability at 35.95 mt against domestic demand of 28.5 mt, projecting a closing stock of 7.45 mt by September 2026. With such a healthy balance, India is well-positioned to export nearly 2 mt this season, provided the government finalizes its export policy soon.

State-wise, Maharashtra leads the recovery with an impressive 39% jump in gross sugar output to 13 mt, driven by increased cane acreage and favorable weather conditions. In Uttar Pradesh, acreage has slightly declined, but yield improvements are expected to maintain production around 10.32 mt. Karnataka also shows strength, with production likely to rise 16% to 6.35 mt amid expanded cultivation.

Overall, the industry anticipates a steady year ahead, with strong cane availability and balanced stocks ensuring market stability. Export clarity, once announced, may further guide mill operations and pricing strategies.

Finally, ISMA’s projections signal a robust sugar season ahead, with improved crop yields, strong stock positions, and export potential reinforcing India’s stable outlook for 2025–26.

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