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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to extend its recovery and move higher towards $4,250 amid softer dollar and correction in US treasury yields. Further, last month’s weaker than expected US jobs data and lower crude oil prices would ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in this year. As per the CME Fed-watch tool September rate hike bets just cooled down below 55% from 60% a week ago. Further, prices would also get support on strong central bank buying. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key US economic numbers and speech from FOMC member Waller for further clues on interest rate path.

• MCX Gold Aug is expected to rise towards Rs 149,000 - Rs 150,000 level as long as it holds above Rs 145,500 level

• Spot Silver has been trading above $62 mark. It is expected to extend its rebound towards $65 mark as long as it holds above $60. MCX Silver September is expected to rise towards Rs 242,000 - Rs 244,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 232,000 level.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid softer dollar and easing concerns of monetary tightening from major central banks. Moreover, steady growth in Chinese manufacturing activity and depleting LME inventory levels would provide support to prices. Copper premium in China held above $65 per ton mark, indicating strong demand. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key US decision on import duty from US on refined copper imports.

• MCX Copper July is expected to move higher towards Rs 1295, as long as it stays above Rs 1270 level. Only a move above Rs 1295 it would rise towards Rs 1310.

• MCX Aluminum July is expected to move in the band of Rs 328 and Rs 335. Only a move above Rs 335 level it would open the doors towards Rs 338. MCX Zinc July is likely to hold support at Rs 362 level and rise towards Rs 370 - Rs 372 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude is expected to trade with negative bias on recovering energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In June OPEC’s production rose 2.34 Million barrels per day amid restored exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The supply flows have increased in last 1-weeks, as more than 10 mb/d oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil futures curve is trading in contango price structure, which indicates short-term oversupply. Moreover, an output hike of 188,000 barrels per day in August by OPEC+ would also weigh on oil prices.

• NYMEX crude oil is likely to face hurdle near $70 and move lower towards $65. MCX Crude oil July is likely to slip towards Rs 6300, as long as it trades under Rs 6700 level.

• MCX Natural gas July is expected to slid towards Rs 300 - Rs 295 level as long as it stays below Rs 320 level. Higher inventory levels would likely to counter strong summer demand.

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