Weekly Commodity Insights 06th July 2026 by Axis Securities Ltd
The Week That Was
• Comex Gold extended its winning streak for a second consecutive week, with prices gaining more than 1% as weaker-thanexpected U.S. economic data boosted demand for precious metals. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3, below the market expectation of 53.8, while Non-Farm Payrolls rose by just 57,000 compared with the forecast of 114,000. The softer data reduced expectations of further interest rate hikes, providing support to gold prices. In addition, a less hawkish tone from Fed Chairman Warsh further strengthened bullish sentiment and helped prices remain supported at lower levels. Looking ahead, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes this week is expected to keep gold prices volatile as markets seek further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
• Comex Silver also ended the week in positive territory for the second consecutive week, supported by weaker-thanexpected U.S. economic data and a less hawkish tone from the Fed Chairman. Market participants will closely monitor the upcoming ISM Services PMI data, as it could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. We expect silver prices to maintain a positive bias as long as they hold above the $58 support level on the downside.
• Nymex Crude Oil declined toward the pre-conflict level of $68 per barrel as supply concerns eased following a larger-thanexpected build in U.S. crude inventories. Market sentiment was further weighed down by positive remarks from President Trump regarding progress in peace talks with Iran, raising expectations of improved geopolitical stability. Additionally, the normalisation of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced fears of supply disruptions, creating further headwinds for crude oil prices.
• Comex Copper snapped its two-week losing streak, ending the week with a modest gain of around 0.5%. Prices found support after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data prompted investors to scale back expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The U.S. economy added significantly fewer jobs in June than anticipated, reducing the probability of a September rate hike to around 50%, down from nearly 67% before the employment report. However, the upside remained limited as easing supply concerns, driven by the normalization of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, helped improve market sentiment and kept copper prices in check.
MCX Gold
Technical Outlook:
Based on the above technical setup, the recent price action shows a sharp correction down to the Rs 1,40,000–Rs 145,000 zone. However, if the metal establishes a firm base and sustains these lower price levels without breaking further down, it would signal strong demand and absorption by buyers. A sustained stabilisation here would likely cause the oversold RSI (currently near 50) to hook upward, triggering a technical bounce back toward the dynamic resistance of the 9 and 20 EMAs near Rs 1,50,000.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Gold around Rs 1,44,000 with a stop-loss below Rs 1,40,000 and targets of Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 1,54,000.
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,47,300
MCX Silver
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the weekly chart, Silver Futures have undergone a significant correction after cooling off from yearly highs. Last week, it snapped its five-week losing streak and rallied by almost 7%. Additionally, the RSI (14) has successfully reset to a neutral 50.18 level, working off overbought conditions and providing a fresh launching pad for potential buyers. A highly tactical "buy on dips" approach is favoured here as the broader structural uptrend remains intact. This bullish outlook remains completely valid as long as the previous major swing low near Rs 2,10,380 is held on a weekly closing basis. A decisive breakout back above the 9 and 20 EMAs cluster near Rs 2,43,000 will confirm that the next leg of the rally has resumed.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Silver around Rs 2,30,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 2,10,000 and targets of Rs 2,50,000 and Rs 2,60,000
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,47,300
MCX Crude Oil
Technical Outlook:
MCX Crude Oil has been under bearish grip for the last month as it corrected almost 20% last week. The near-term trend is negative as it is trading below the 9 and 20 EMAs, and RSI is approaching towards 40 level, which indicates that the prices have some more room to correct. Sell on rise is recommended in crude oil as long as the Rs 7,000 level is intact on the upside.
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Crude Oil around Rs 6,800, with a stop-loss above Rs 7,000 and targets of Rs 6,500 and Rs 6,200.
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 6,570
MCX Copper
Technical Outlook:
MCX Copper snapped its five-week losing streak, gaining more than 1% during the week. Prices found support at the 20-day EMA and rebounded, highlighting strong buying interest around this key technical level. As long as the previous swing low of Rs 1,240 remains intact, we expect copper prices to trade with a positive bias within a range.
The near-term resistance is placed at the Rs 1,310 level. A breakout above this level may push prices higher towards the Rs 1,360 level in the coming weeks.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 1,260 with a stoploss below Rs 1,240 and targets of Rs 1,290 and Rs 1,320.
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,284
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