IGI Logo

India faces a critical wheat shortage as government data reveals reserves at their lowest in 16 years, spurred by consecutive years of diminished crop yields. Despite record sales aimed at stabilizing domestic prices, the government resists import incentives and opts to sell from state reserves to bulk consumers. Procurement targets for the upcoming season are crucial, following previous years of shortfall due to climatic challenges and export restrictions amidst global supply deficits.

Highlights

Lowest Stocks in 16 Years: Indian wheat reserves hit a 16-year low due to two consecutive years of reduced crop yields, leading to record sales by the government to stabilize domestic supplies and prices.

Record Sales to Stabilize Prices: New Delhi sold a record 10 million tons of wheat last year to stabilize prices, contributing to the decrease in stock levels.

Government's Supply Management: Despite tight supply, the government resisted calls to cut import taxes or buy directly from top suppliers like Russia, instead opting to sell from state reserves to bulk consumers to control domestic prices.

Maintaining Buffer Norms: Despite significant sales, the government ensured stock levels did not fall below buffer norms, aiming to maintain at least 10 million tons of wheat in reserves going forward.

Procurement Targets and Challenges: India aims to procure 30-32 million tons of wheat from farmers this year to ensure stock levels remain above buffer norms, following previous years where procurement targets were missed due to heat waves affecting crop size.

Export Restrictions Amid Global Shortfall: In 2022, India banned wheat exports despite rising global demand due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contributing to a global shortfall in wheat supply.

Conclusion

India's wheat stocks hitting a 16-year low underscores the urgent need for strategic supply management amidst agricultural challenges. The government's efforts to stabilize prices through record sales demonstrate proactive measures, yet the reluctance to ease import barriers may exacerbate supply constraints. Achieving procurement targets for the upcoming season is paramount to replenishing reserves and ensuring food security. Amidst global supply uncertainties, India's wheat dilemma highlights the delicate balance between domestic needs and international obligations in the face of evolving agricultural dynamics.

https://investmentguruindia.com/newsdetail/pre-market-comment-by-deven-mehata-choice-broking-ltd421018