U.S. Wheat Stocks Rise as Global Supplies Ease by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook shows stable supplies, slightly lower domestic consumption, and higher ending stocks, now projected at 931 million bushels — the highest since 2019/20. Reduced food use, as indicated by the latest flour milling data, weighed on demand, though seed use edged higher. Globally, wheat supplies are marginally lower due to reduced beginning stocks and weaker output in Turkey and Mongolia, despite record production in Argentina. World trade is expected to increase, led by stronger exports from Argentina and Canada, while global ending stocks decline slightly but remain at a five-year high.
Key Highlights
* U.S. 2025/26 wheat ending stocks raised to 931 million bushels
* Domestic food use lowered, season-average farm price steady at $4.90
* Global wheat supplies edge lower despite record Argentina output
* World trade projected higher on stronger Argentina, Canada exports
* Global ending stocks dip slightly but remain at 5-year high
The outlook for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat season points to steady overall supplies, slightly softer domestic demand, and higher ending stocks. While total supplies remain unchanged, domestic use has been trimmed, mainly due to lower food consumption as reflected in the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report released in early February. This decline in food use is only partially offset by a marginal increase in seed demand.
As a result, U.S. ending stocks are projected at 931 million bushels, marking a 9% increase from last year and the highest level since the 2019/20 season. Despite the higher stock levels, the projected season-average farm price remains unchanged at $4.90 per bushel, indicating stable price expectations amid comfortable supplies.
On the global front, the 2025/26 wheat balance sheet shows a marginal tightening in supplies. World wheat supplies are projected to decline slightly to 1,101.6 million tons, reflecting lower beginning stocks and reduced production in countries such as Turkey and Mongolia. Although Argentina’s production is raised to a record 27.8 million tons, this increase is not sufficient to fully offset declines elsewhere.
Global consumption is forecast marginally higher at 824.1 million tons, supported by increased food, seed, and industrial use in several countries. However, lower feed and residual use, particularly in Canada and Turkey, tempers the overall gain.
World trade is projected to rise to 222.0 million tons, driven largely by stronger exports from Argentina and Canada. Argentina’s exports are expected to reach a record 18.0 million tons, supported by competitive pricing and robust shipments. Global ending stocks are slightly lower at 277.5 million tons but remain at a five-year high.
Overall, comfortable U.S. stocks and steady global trade flows suggest a well-supplied wheat market, even as minor production adjustments reshape the global balance sheet.
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