Global Soybean Output Rises; U.S. Outlook Steady By by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2025/26 U.S. soybean balance sheet remains unchanged, with supply, use, and prices holding steady. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.20 per bushel, while soybean meal and oil prices are maintained at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively. Globally, soybean production is revised higher, driven by increased output in Brazil and Paraguay. Crush demand also rises on stronger global meal consumption, particularly in the EU. Global ending stocks increase to 125.5 million tons, reflecting higher Brazilian supplies and steady global trade dynamics.
Key Highlights
* U.S. soybean balance sheet unchanged; price steady at $10.20
* Brazil production raised to 180 million tons
* Global crush increases on stronger soybean meal demand
* Global ending stocks up to 125.5 million tons
* China may shift purchases toward U.S. soybeans
The U.S. soybean outlook for the 2025/26 marketing year remains steady this month, with no changes to supply or demand projections. The season-average farm price is maintained at $10.20 per bushel. Likewise, soybean meal and soybean oil prices are unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively, indicating stable domestic fundamentals.
Globally, however, the picture is slightly more dynamic. World soybean production is revised higher, led by a 2.0 million-ton increase for Brazil, taking its output to 180.0 million tons. The upward revision reflects higher planted area and improved yields, supported by favorable weather conditions and updated state-level data. Paraguay’s production is also raised by 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million tons due to beneficial rainfall throughout the growing season.
Higher production in South America is contributing to an increase in global soybean crush, particularly in Brazil and Paraguay. The boost in crush is driven by stronger global demand for soybean meal, especially from the European Union. EU oilseed meal demand expanded significantly in 2024/25 due to competitive pricing. While growth is expected to moderate in 2025/26, demand remains firm, although a larger share may shift toward rapeseed meal following crop recovery.
China is reportedly considering increased purchases of U.S. soybeans. Since global import demand remains largely unchanged, any rise in Chinese buying from the U.S. would likely shift trade flows rather than expand overall exports.
Global ending stocks are raised by 1.1 million tons to 125.5 million, primarily on higher Brazilian stocks. Additionally, Malaysia’s 2025/26 palm oil production is revised up to 20.2 million tons.
While U.S. fundamentals remain stable, higher South American output and rising global stocks signal comfortable soybean supplies heading into the 2025/26 marketing year.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
