India`s crude oil imports from Russia stay elevated despite US warnings; decline seen from December: Rubix Data Sciences
As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to visit India on December 4–5, a new report by Rubix Data Sciences finds that India’s crude oil and petroleum products imports from Russia are likely to remain at an elevated level in November 2025 despite the US’ repeated warnings against oil imports from Russia. The report assumes greater significance in the backdrop of India’s strenuous efforts to sign a bilateral trade treaty with the US.
The report unravels how closely the two economies – India and Russia – are intertwined and how difficult it is for them to scale down the trade relations in near-to-medium term. Total goods traded between India and Russia recorded a robust 70% CAGR from FY21 to FY25. Notably, India’s trade deficit also widened by almost 20 times during this period.
In FY21, India sourced barely 2% of its crude oil imports from Russia. But in FY25, it increased to 35%, making the former Soviet state India’s largest crude oil supplier with a trade value of more than USD 50 billion in FY25. More importantly, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are projected to reach their highest level in November this year, but may start declining from December onwards driven primarily by pre-deadline stocking by Indian refiners, discounted pricing, and shifting global energy flows.
Russia’s overall exports are mainly led by three energy products – crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas. The share of these products in the total exports has increased to 52% in 2024 from 30% in 2021. Overall, Asia now accounts for nearly 95% of Russia’s crude oil exports. China is the top buyer, and India comes second.
The study also points out that despite mounting international pressure, India continues to strengthen its defence partnership with Russia by exploring opportunities for SU-57E stealth fighters, an advanced variant of the BrahMos missile, and S-400 air defence missile system.
Another notable development is the sudden spurt in Russian capital inflows into Indian equities. Equity inflows from Russia tripled in FY25 to USD 18.45 million from USD 5.16 million in FY24.
On the economic front, the report notes that Russia’s economy is slowly slipping into stagnation. GDP growth is declining. It is expected to drastically fall from 4.3% in 2024 to 0.6% in 2025, and marginally grow to 1% in 2026 due to low economic growth, sanctions from Western countries, and overdependence on Asian markets for oil exports.
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