U.S. and Global Wheat Supplies Projected Higher in 2025/26 - Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The U.S. wheat outlook for 2025/26 shows slightly larger supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks, with projections now at 926 million bushels, up 8% from last year. Seed and feed use are revised lower based on updated reports, and the season-average farm price is modestly reduced to $4.90 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all expected to rise, driven by record harvests in Argentina (27.5 million tons) and higher Russian output (89.5 million tons). World trade is up 1.1 million tons, and global ending stocks increase to 278.3 million tons.
Key Highlights
* U.S. wheat ending stocks raised 25 million bushels to 926 million
* Domestic feed and seed use reduced on updated reports
* Season-average U.S. farm price lowered slightly to $4.90/bushel
* Global wheat production rises on record Argentine and higher Russian output
* Global ending stocks projected higher at 278.3 million tons
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest projections for the 2025/26 wheat season indicate modest increases in supply and ending stocks, accompanied by lower domestic usage. Beginning stocks were revised upward by 4 million bushels following the latest NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use were reduced by 20 million bushels to 100 million, reflecting smaller-than-expected first-quarter disappearance, while seed use fell 1 million bushels to 61 million. Exports remain unchanged at 900 million bushels, though by-class adjustments were made. With these revisions, projected ending stocks climb 25 million bushels to 926 million, representing an 8% increase from the previous year. The season-average farm price is trimmed slightly to $4.90 per bushel.
Globally, wheat supplies for 2025/26 are also expected to expand, with total production raised 4.3 million tons to 1,102.2 million tons. The upward revision is primarily due to record-high harvests in Argentina, projected at 27.5 million tons—nearly 50% above last year—and higher Russian production of 89.5 million tons based on preliminary Rosstat yield reports. Turkey’s reduced output is largely offset by these gains. Global consumption is forecast at 823.9 million tons, reflecting higher use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco. World trade increases 1.1 million tons to 219.8 million, supported by stronger exports from Argentina and Kazakhstan, partially offset by reduced shipments from the EU and Ukraine. Consequently, projected global ending stocks rise 3.4 million tons to 278.3 million tons, primarily on increased holdings in Russia and Argentina.
These developments suggest ample global wheat availability in 2025/26, with increased U.S. and international supplies helping stabilize prices despite steady demand.
Finally, stronger U.S. and global wheat supplies, combined with elevated ending stocks, point to a well-supplied market in 2025/26, providing support to prices while easing potential supply-side pressures.
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