US & Global Wheat Outlook Shows Tighter Supplies, Higher Exports by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook signals slightly tighter supplies, lower domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Production is cut by 2 million bushels due to smaller harvested area, partly offset by better yields. Exports rise on strong demand for Hard Red Winter wheat, while ending stocks drop to 869 million bushels. Prices are trimmed to $5.30 per bushel amid softer corn prices. Globally, supplies decline due to reduced output in China, Brazil, and Argentina, partially offset by higher EU production. Consumption dips, trade improves, and ending stocks fall to their lowest since 2015/16 at 260.1 million tons.
Key Highlights
* U.S. wheat production cut to 1,927 million bushels.
* Exports up 25 million bushels on strong early sales.
* Ending stocks drop to 869 million bushels.
* Global ending stocks hit lowest since 2015/16.
* Prices ease to $5.30 per bushel.
The U.S. wheat market in 2025/26 is poised for tighter supplies alongside firm export demand, shaping a mixed price performance outlook. The season-average farm price is reduced by $0.10 to $5.30 per bushel, reflecting softer projected U.S. corn prices and expectations of stable wheat pricing for the remainder of the marketing year.
Production estimates have been lowered by 2 million bushels to 1,927 million, driven by smaller harvested area. However, an improved yield of 52.7 bushels per acre offers partial relief. While Hard Red Spring and White wheat output is reduced, gains are noted for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter varieties.
Domestic use is projected lower by 5 million bushels due to reduced food consumption, as indicated by the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. In contrast, exports are expected to climb 25 million bushels to 875 million, fueled by robust demand for Hard Red Winter wheat in early shipments. Consequently, ending stocks are revised down by 21 million bushels to 869 million.
On the global front, 2025/26 wheat supplies are forecast to fall by 2.5 million tons to 1,069.6 million, largely due to production cuts in China, Brazil, and Argentina, partially offset by a 1.0 million ton increase in EU output, the highest since 2021/22. Global consumption is trimmed to 809.5 million tons, with reductions in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines. World trade improves marginally, driven by higher U.S. exports, but ending stocks drop to 260.1 million tons — their lowest since 2015/16.
In conclusion, with tightening supplies, strong U.S. export demand, and the lowest global stocks in nearly a decade, wheat market fundamentals suggest underlying support despite modest price softness.
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