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The Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has projected soyabean carryover stocks for 2025-26 to fall 59% to 3.66 lakh tonnes, down from 8.94 lakh tonnes last year. As of August 11, total stocks stood at 21.13 lakh tonnes, including NAFED and NCCF holdings. Crushing till July was 96 lakh tonnes, lower than last year’s 104.50 lakh tonnes. Soyameal exports dropped to 17.08 lakh tonnes, with Germany, France, and Nepal as top buyers. Acreages declined to 115.20 lakh ha as some farmers shifted to corn and pulses. Crop conditions remain satisfactory despite excessive rainfall in some regions.

Key Highlights

* SOPA projects soyabean carryover stocks to drop 59% in 2025-26.

* Crushing till July fell to 96 lakh tonnes from 104.50 lakh tonnes.

* Soyameal exports dropped to 17.08 lakh tonnes, with Germany as top buyer.

* Acreages fell to 115.20 lakh ha as farmers shifted to alternatives.

* Crop condition mostly satisfactory despite excess rain in parts of MP and Rajasthan.

Soyabean prices may find support as the Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) projects a sharp 59% fall in carryover stocks for the upcoming oil year 2025-26. Stocks are estimated at just 3.66 lakh tonnes, down from 8.94 lakh tonnes last year, reflecting tighter supplies ahead.

As of August 11, total soyabean stocks in the country, including holdings by NAFED and NCCF, stood at 21.13 lakh tonnes. Crushing activity till July reached 96 lakh tonnes, compared to 104.50 lakh tonnes during the same period last year. Direct consumption stood at 4.55 lakh tonnes, while exports were minimal at 0.10 lakh tonnes.

Soyameal production also dipped to 75.75 lakh tonnes, with exports sliding to 17.08 lakh tonnes from 19.24 lakh tonnes. Germany remained the largest importer, followed by France, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Kenya. Demand from the feed industry fell to 52 lakh tonnes from 56 lakh tonnes, while the food sector maintained steady offtake at 6.85 lakh tonnes.

On the acreage front, government data pegs soyabean sowing at 119.51 lakh hectares, but SOPA’s own estimates place it at a lower 115.20 lakh ha, indicating some shift towards crops like corn and pulses in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan.

Crop conditions are generally satisfactory in Maharashtra and parts of Madhya Pradesh, though excessive rains have caused waterlogging and delayed growth in certain pockets. With 70% of the crop in the flowering stage, timely management will be crucial for yield outcomes.

In conclusion, lower stocks and reduced output may lend price support, but weather conditions and demand trends will remain key drivers in the months ahead.

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