India's Sugar Exports May Reach 8 Lakh Tonnes This Season by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India has exported 5.38 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar since January 20 after the government permitted 10 lt for export in the 2024-25 season. Including quantities in transit, exports exceed 5.61 lt and may reach the projected 8 lt. Major shipments were made to Somalia, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan. Sugar production is expected to fall to 26.52 million tonnes (mt), a 16.9% drop from last season. Contributing factors include red rot disease, floods in Uttar Pradesh, and erratic rainfall in Maharashtra, causing early closure of mills. The closing stock is likely to be 4.5 mt by September 30, 2025.
Key Highlights
# India exported 5.38 lt sugar; projected to reach 8 lt.
# Shipments mainly went to Somalia, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan.
# Sugar production may drop 16.9% to 26.52 mt.
# UP faced red rot disease and flood-related crop damage.
# Early mill closures reported due to poor cane yield in Maharashtra.
India’s sugar exports are gaining momentum, with total shipments crossing 5.38 lakh tonnes (lt) since January 20, after the Centre allowed 10 lt of sugar exports for the 2024-25 season ending September 30. According to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA), another 23,219 tonnes are currently in transit or awaiting port loading, taking the total closer to 5.61 lt. The country is expected to achieve exports of up to 8 lt by season-end.
The exports included 4.10 lt of white sugar, 25,382 tonnes of raw sugar, and 81,845 tonnes of refined sugar. Additionally, over 21,000 tonnes of raw sugar were dispatched to SEZ refineries, which count as deemed exports. Somalia topped the list of importers, receiving 1.18 lt, followed by Sri Lanka (76,401 tonnes), Afghanistan (72,833 tonnes), and others like Djibouti, UAE, Libya, and Tanzania.
Despite healthy export performance, India’s sugar production is witnessing a steep decline. AISTA estimates this season’s production at 26.52 million tonnes (mt), nearly 17% lower than last season’s 31.9 mt. The projected closing stock by September 30, 2025, is around 4.5 mt.
The production decline is largely attributed to red rot disease and floods in Uttar Pradesh, which affected cane quality and sugar recovery rates. In Maharashtra, erratic rainfall and flowering issues led to reduced cane yield, forcing sugar mills to shut down operations earlier than usual.
Finally
While sugar exports remain strong, domestic production challenges may impact future supply and pricing dynamics heading into the next season.
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