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The USDA’s 2025/26 U.S. soybean outlook projects lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down 20 million bushels on higher prior-year crush and exports. Production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, 43 million lower on reduced acreage, partly offset by higher yields. Exports are cut by 40 million bushels, while crush remains steady. The season-average price is unchanged at \$10.10 per bushel. Globally, oilseed production is down 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million, mainly on declines in soybeans and sunflowerseed. Global soybean ending stocks fall to 124.9 million tons due to reduced supplies in multiple key regions.

Key Highlights

* U.S. soybean production cut to 4.3 billion bushels.

* Harvested area down 2.4 million acres, but yield improves.

* Exports lowered by 40 million bushels; crush steady.

* Global oilseed output down 3.3 million tons.

* Global soybean ending stocks fall to 124.9 million tons.

Soybean prices are likely to find support as the USDA’s August 2025/26 outlook points to tighter U.S. supplies. The season-average soybean price is forecast unchanged at \$10.10 per bushel, while soybean meal is projected at \$280 per short ton, down \$10, and soybean oil remains at 53 cents per pound.

The U.S. supply picture shows notable tightening. Beginning stocks are down 20 million bushels due to higher crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Production is pegged at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million from last month. This decline is driven by a 2.4-million-acre drop in harvested area to 80.1 million acres, though the first survey-based yield estimate rose to 53.6 bushels per acre. Exports are reduced by 40 million bushels amid a slow sales pace, while crush remains at 2.54 billion bushels. Ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.

Globally, the oilseed outlook is similarly tighter. World oilseed production is forecast at 690.1 million tons, down 3.3 million, mainly due to lower soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed output. Hot and dry weather in the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia has trimmed sunflowerseed yields. Global soybean production is reduced on lower U.S. and Serbian output, while U.S. exports are cut but Argentina and Uruguay see increases. Global ending stocks are now projected at 124.9 million tons, 1.2 million lower, with declines in Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the U.S.

In conclusion, tighter U.S. and global supplies may lend underlying support to soybean prices despite steady domestic price forecasts.

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