Key Highlights - OPEC+ Supply Pause Amid Rising Oil Prices by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
Key Highlights – OPEC+ Supply Pause Amid Rising Oil Prices
Supply Freeze Extended: OPEC+ confirmed it will keep oil production unchanged in March, completing the final month of a three-month supply pause agreed in November.
Decision Despite Price Rally: The move comes even as crude prices climbed to a four-month high above $70/barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions around Iran and US threats of military action.
No Q2 Guidance Yet: The group deliberately avoided clarity on production plans for the second quarter, keeping options open. A decision is expected at the next meeting on March 1.
Geopolitical Caution: OPEC+ is sticking to its traditional approach—waiting for actual supply disruptions rather than reacting preemptively to geopolitical risks.
Idle Capacity Remains: Around 1.2 million barrels/day of production capacity, shut since 2023, could still be restored. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are keen but cautious.
Oversupply Risks Ahead: The IEA warns of a potential record global oil glut as demand growth slows and non-OPEC supply (US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana) continues to rise.
Banks See Need for Cuts: JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley argue OPEC+ may ultimately need to cut output to prevent a sharp fall in prices.
Prices Supported—for Now: Oil has stayed resilient due to Iran tensions, supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, and uncertainty around Venezuela’s oil sector.
Saudi Trade-off: Higher output supported Saudi economic growth in 2025, but last year’s 18% oil price drop forced spending cuts and increased fiscal pressure.
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