China`s Grain and Feed Outlook : Record Production in 2024/25 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
In marketing year 2024/25, China is projected to achieve record grain production of 706.5 million metric tons, a 1.6% increase driven by expanded acreage and higher yields. Corn production is expected to rise by 2% to 294.9 million metric tons, supported by high-yield varieties, while wheat and rice outputs are set to grow modestly. Falling corn prices have bolstered its use in feed and industrial applications, reducing reliance on wheat and rice. However, quality concerns persist, including toxins in corn. Government policies are shifting trade dynamics, leading to reduced corn and wheat imports but higher rice imports due to eased export restrictions in India. Overall, China's focus remains on boosting domestic production while navigating quality and trade challenges.
Key Highlights
* Record Grain Output: China’s grain production forecast at 706.5 MMT, up by 1.6% year-on-year.
* Corn Dominance: Corn production to increase by 2%, reaching 294.9 MMT, supported by high-yield varieties.
* Reduced Imports: Corn and wheat imports to decline due to strong domestic output and policy shifts.
* Rising Feed Demand: Lower corn prices have increased its use in feed and industrial applications.
* Rice Imports Surge: India’s export relaxation boosts China’s rice imports amid regional demand.
China’s grain sector is poised for a record-breaking year in marketing year 2024/25, with total production estimated to reach 706.5 million metric tons (MMT), a 1.6% increase from the previous year. This growth is fueled by expanded acreage and advancements in crop yields. Corn, the star performer, is forecast to rise by 2% to 294.9 MMT, driven by high-yield varieties. Wheat and rice production also show modest gains, highlighting China’s commitment to agricultural self-sufficiency.
The price performance for corn is particularly notable. With prices falling to a four-year low, corn has become increasingly attractive for feed and industrial applications, displacing wheat and rice. Feed formulations now include a higher percentage of corn, thanks to its affordability and availability. However, concerns about toxin contamination in new crop corn remain a challenge.
In the trade domain, China is reducing its reliance on imports. Corn imports are forecast to drop to 14 MMT, reflecting government efforts to support domestic farmers. Wheat imports are also expected to decline by 37%, thanks to robust domestic production. Conversely, rice imports are set to increase following India’s relaxation of export restrictions, catering to regional demand near India.
Despite quality and trade challenges, China’s focus on self-sufficiency and strategic policy shifts are shaping a resilient grain sector, setting the stage for sustained growth.
Finally
China’s 2024/25 grain sector reflects strong production and strategic trade policies, with record output and rising domestic demand reshaping the market landscape.
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