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The USDA projects U.S. wheat supplies and domestic use for 2025/26 to remain unchanged, while exports rise to 900 million bushels due to strong Hard Red Winter wheat shipments. Ending stocks are lowered to 844 million bushels, slightly below last year, and the farm price is reduced to $5.10 per bushel. Globally, wheat production, consumption, and trade are all higher, with significant gains in Australia, the EU, and Russia. World ending stocks rise to 264.1 million tons. Increased production and exports from major countries support the market, even as Russia and Ukraine show slight reductions in shipments.

* U.S. wheat exports raised to 900 million bushels on strong demand.

* U.S. ending stocks lowered to 844 million bushels, slightly below last year.

* Farm price projected at $5.10 per bushel, down $0.20.

* Global wheat production up to 1,078.6 million tons on favorable conditions.

* World ending stocks increased to 264.1 million tons on higher global output.

U.S. wheat prices for 2025/26 are expected to remain under moderate pressure despite higher exports. The USDA raised U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 900 million, driven by strong sales and shipments of Hard Red Winter wheat. However, domestic use is unchanged, and ending stocks are lowered to 844 million bushels, slightly below last year. The projected season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $5.10, reflecting NASS-reported prices and market expectations for futures and cash prices through the remainder of the marketing year.

Globally, wheat supplies and production are up, led by Australia, the EU, and Russia. Australia’s output rises 3.5 million tons to 34.5 million on favorable crop conditions, while the EU and Russia also report higher harvests. Smaller production gains are noted for Canada, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Global consumption is projected higher at 814.5 million tons, largely due to increased feed and residual use across major producers. World trade rises to 214.7 million tons, driven by stronger exports from Australia and the U.S., offsetting declines from Russia and Ukraine.

The combined effect of increased global production and trade provides support for wheat prices, although U.S. domestic stock reductions and lower farm prices temper gains. The market remains sensitive to export pace and production updates from key countries.

Finally, overall, wheat markets are balancing stronger global production with U.S. stock declines, keeping prices under moderate pressure, while export demand and favorable conditions in major countries provide ongoing support.

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