Chemicals Sector Update : Crop & Chemical Dashboard: Battery chemicals defy trends by Kotak Institutional Equities
Crop & Chemical Dashboard: Battery chemicals defy trends
Crop prices are under some pressure in India (especially corn), while excess rainfall has continued into the Rabi season. India’s chemical exports fell 9.9% mom and 21.0% yoy in October 2025, possibly reflecting destocking by customers. Lanxess and Arkema lowered guidance during the month gone by. Amid generally subdued chemical price trends, battery chemicals have shown a sharp spike in recent months.
Agriculture markets: Crop prices under pressure in India
The end of the US government shutdown permitted publication of USDA WASDE data for November 2025 after a month-long break. The data showed an uptick in stock-to-use ratios for India wheat and world cotton, but little change otherwise. Meanwhile, US soybean prices ticked up 6.0% during the past month amid concerns around dry weather in Brazil and Argentina, and are now up 15.0% yoy. Coffee is also up 32% yoy, but cotton, rice, sugar, wheat and palm oil are all lower by double digits yoy. Meanwhile, crop prices generally remain under pressure in India: corn prices plunged 21% mom and are down 27% yoy, while groundnut, onion and potato prices also fell. Compounding distress for farmers is the continued excessive rainfall in the Rabi season: 60% of India has received above-normal rains since October 1.
India’s exports of chemicals plunged 21% yoy in October 2025
India’s exports of organic and inorganic chemicals for October 2025 fell 9.9% mom and 21.0% yoy, while imports dipped 0.3% mom and stood marginally lower by 0.1% yoy. The sharp decline in exports may reflect the impact of destocking by global customers, who likely front-loaded purchases before US tariffs kicked in. Chemical industry metrics coming from the US were fairly steady: US chemical shipments rose to US$57.9 bn in August 2025, up 0.3% mom and 1.8% yoy. US chemical inventories ticked up 0.4% mom, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio for chemicals was unchanged mom at 1.24X, having declined steadily since late-2022 as the post-Covid inventory buildup has been gradually wound down. Chemical railcar holding—a measure of volumes—were up 0.5% yoy on a 13-week moving average basis.
Comments on chemical price trends
The area that has seen the maximum volatility in recent weeks is battery chemicals: prices of vinylene carbonate (an additive) have spiked 265% in China over the past three months, while LiPF6 salt prices have also more than tripled, electrolyte prices have doubled and LiFSi prices are up 42%. In the agrochemical segment, prices of the herbicide clethodim have corrected by 22% in the past quarter after having rallied on supply constraints. Basic chemical prices generally remain soft, barring bromine, which climbed 10% last month. China soda ash prices do not show any signs of recovery. International phenol spreads remain very weak, although domestic spreads have so far held up better. Among refrigerants, HFC prices have held firm, but R-22 prices have corrected in China.
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