Buy Titan Company for the Target Rs.4,400 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
As per its Q2 business update, TTAN has exceeded our growth expectations across most business segments. Importantly, jewelry has reported a significant improvement with 26% growth in Q2 vs our 15% expectation and 9% growth in Q1. LTL growth has also inched upwards to the mid-teens vs 3% in Q1, likely triggered by a big 900bps duty cut. Revenue mix is likely a tad weaker with lowdouble-digits growth in the high-margin studded segment (vs ~25% overall growth). However, TTAN is comfortably placed to meet its ~12% jewelry EBIT margin guidance in FY25, in our view. Q2 outperformance should address investor concerns around potential moderation in growth for TTAN and drive a 4-5% increase in our earnings estimates. We recommend BUY with revised TP of Rs4,400/share (based on 65x Sep-26E EPS).
Significant growth pick-up in jewelry segment: TTAN has surprised positively with 25% growth in domestic jewelry business vs our expectation of 15% growth in Q2. Basis the historical difference of 5-6% between LTL and consumer sales, we believe the growth in consumer sales (secondary/retail sales) is closer to 20-21% as Q2 LTL is in mid-teens and the rest has been contributed by higher primary sales (likely festive-led) to franchisees. Still, this is a significant improvement vs Q1 LTL/secondary sales growth of 3%/9% and has likely been triggered by the big 900bps duty cut. Revenue mix is likely a tad weaker with low-double-digits growth in studded and high-double-digits growth (Emkay: ~30%) in plain gold. Encouragingly, lower studded growth is due to decline in solitaires which is a relatively lower margin segment within the overall studded business. In our view, TTAN is comfortably placed to meet its ~12% EBIT margin guidance in FY25.
Other business segments also deliver better growth: Watches segment also grew faster at 20% (vs expectation of 15%), led by 25% growth in analog watches and doubledigits decline in wearables (industry-wide challenges). Eyewear growth at 6% is in line with expectations. Caratlane/Emerging segments also saw pick up with 28%/14% growth in Q2 (18%/4% in Q1).
Store additions are in line for most segments: The store additions were in line with 75 additions across segments. TTAN added 11/11/1 stores for Tanishq/Mia/Zoya, 18/14/2 for Titan World/Helios/Fastrack, 2 for Eyewear, and 4 for Taneira. Caratlane added 11 stores (net) in Q1, taking the total to 286 stores.

For More Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd Disclaimer http://www.emkayglobal.com/Uploads/disclaimer.pdf & SEBI Registration number is INH000000354
