US court ruling on tariffs lifts dollar, dragging rupee lower
The Indian rupee is set to open weaker on Thursday, weighed by the dollar's strength after a U.S. court blocked President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the local currency would open in the 85.48-85.52 range, compared to a close of 85.36 in the previous session.
"When you think about it, it’s a bit counterintuitive that Asia is lower on the back of the U.S. court blocking tariffs," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
"However, that’s been the pattern — tariffs imply weaker U.S. growth and a softer dollar."
The trader expects the rupee to find support in the 85.50–85.60 zone, and reckons that the opening decline in the rupee will not sustain.
The dollar index climbed past the 100 level, Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 0.6%, and U.S. equity futures rallied after a U.S. court blocked Trump from imposing tariffs, saying the U.S. Constitution provides Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce.
The Trump administration filed a notice of appeal and questioned the authority of the court.
Trump’s tariff plans on U.S. trading partners had drawn warnings from economists about the potential for higher inflation and uncertainty, which had weighed on the dollar.
The U.S. court ruling blocking the tariffs brought relief to the dollar, at least for now.
"The question is what's next. First, we think tariffs will likely still be in force during the appeals process, with the Trump administration likely to take the appeals process all the way up to the Supreme Court," MUFG Bank said in a note.
The immediate reaction of the dollar strengthening and Asian currencies weakening may not last considering that the tariffs are likely to stay and with the legal uncertainty potentially crimping US growth and investment plans, it said.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.64; onshore one-month forward premium at 15 paisa
** Dollar index at 100.24 ** Brent crude futures up 1.2% at $65.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.5%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $111.7 million worth of Indian shares on May. 27
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $22 million worth of Indian bonds on May. 27
