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2025-09-08 02:30:39 pm | Source: ARETE Securities Ltd
Buy Radico Khaitan Ltd For Target Rs. 3,084 by Arete Securities Ltd
Buy Radico Khaitan Ltd For Target Rs. 3,084 by Arete Securities Ltd

Radico Khaitan (RDCK) reported a strong 1QFY26 performance, with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT rising by 32%/56%/84% YoY, respectively. This robust growth was driven by stellar performance in the Prestige & Above (P&A) segment, a sharp recovery in the Regular segment, and strong market share gains in Andhra Pradesh. P&A brands posted 41% volume growth and 43% value growth, while Regular brands surged 52% in volume and 48% in value, aided by low base, state-level issue resolutions, and route-to-market changes. Premiumization, strong brand execution, and operating leverage drove profitability, with margins expected to expand sustainably. We reiterate a BUY rating with a target price of INR 3,084, based on a PE of 60x Jun'27E EPS.

P&A Brands Fuelling Broad-Based Growth::

RDCK's revenue grew 32% YoY to INR 1506 Crs driven by a 37% increase in total volume. P&A volumes rose 41% YoY to 3.8m cases, while Regular segment volumes jumped 52% to 5.4m cases. Excluding Andhra Pradesh, total volume growth was 12%, with P&A at 20%. Value growth across P&A and Regular stood at 43% and 48%, respectively

The non-IMFL business grew modestly by 12% due to lower bulk alcohol sales, though it maintained a healthy margin profile of 6.5%-7%. RDCK's aggressive market expansion and premium portfolio push, especially in Andhra Pradesh (market share up from 10% to 28% YoY), drove strong volume traction.

Luxury and semi-luxury brands saw 50% value growth YoY, led by Royal Ranthambore's 90% revenue surge. The company is on track to achieve its INR 500 Crs luxury/semi-luxury revenue target for FY26.

 

Margin Expansion Gaining Momentum:

Gross margin expanded 150bps YoY to 43%, driven by product mix improvements and stable raw material (ENA and grain) costs. EBITDA margin rose 230bps YoY to 15.4%, supported by premiumization and operating leverage

While employee costs rose 10% and S&D expenses grew 48% YoY, operational efficiency helped drive profitability. A one-time exceptional item of 69.9 Crs was settled for property tax claims in Rampur, not impacting operating metrics.

Management revised annual margin expansion guidance upward to 125-150bps (vs. earlier 100bps), targeting high-teen EBITDA margins by FY28.

 

Outlook & Valuation: RDCK's strong performance in high-growth segments like P&A and luxury portfolios validates its brand-centric strategy. With expanding market share, rising consumer demand for premium spirits, and strategic product launches (e.g., Morpheus Super Premium Whiskey, Spirit of Kashmir vodka), RDCK is well-placed for sustainable growth. We maintain a BUY rating with a target price of INR 3,084, based on 60x Jun'27E EPS.

 

Other Highlights:

Debt Reduction:

RDCK reduced net debt by INR 164 Crs since Mar'25, driven by strong cash flows and better working capital management. Capex of INR 1,50-160 Crs annually over the next two years will focus on malt infra and brand development. The company expects to be near debt-free by FY27.

UK-India FTA Boost: Reduced Scotch import duties (from 150% to 75%, tapering to 40% over 10 years) enhance cost advantages in premium blends. Scotch imports expected to be INR 250 Crs in FY26 and cross INR 400 Crs in 3 years.

Geographic Highlights: In Andhra Pradesh, market share surged to 28% (from 10% in 1HFY25). Karnataka saw premium brand share rise from 4% to 15% YoY. Maharashtra contributed 4-5% of volumes; the company expects minimal impact from duty hikes.

 

 

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