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Strong Exports, Positive Macroeconomic Factors to Drive Growth

BJAUT saw a muted performance in the domestic market in Q4FY25. This was offset by a significant 20% YoY growth in export volumes for the quarter. The company expects exports to grow 15-20% YoY in the near term (Exports accounted for ~40% of total volume in FY25). We believe BJAUT will continue this growth momentum in exports and we expect the export segment to grow 15.5%/12.4% for FY26/FY27. We believe Latin America to be the biggest growth driver for exports going forward with the region becoming BJAUT’s largest emerging market, with export growth for the region at 18% in Q4FY25. BJAUT also plans to expand the Brazil plant capacity to 50K units from the current capacity of 30k units.

Going forward we expect to see some respite in the domestic industry led by macroeconomic factors like positive GDP growth for Q4FY25 which came in at 7.4%, significantly exceeding expectations and signaling strong economic momentum and expectation of ‘above normal’ monsoon for FY25 forecasted by IMD. Also, BJAUT is focusing on new product launches like Erickshaw and new models in the Chetak series to improve its market share in the domestic market.

We revise our FY26/27 EPS estimates downward by 7.8%/12.0% and maintain our ‘BUY‘ rating with a revised target price of INR 9,750; valuing the company at 26x (unchanged) on FY27E EPS.

BJAUT reported an in line result compared to estimates

* Revenue for Q4FY25 was at INR 1,21,480Mn, up 5.8% YoY and down 5.1% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 1,21,130Mn) led by 3.2% YoY growth in volume and 2.5% YoY growth in ASP.

* EBITDA for Q4FY25 was at INR 24,506Mn, up 6.3% YoY and down 5.0% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 24,341Mn). EBITDA margin was up 9bps YoY and up 2bps QoQ at 20.2% (vs consensus est. at 20.1%).

* PAT for Q4FY25 was at INR 20,493Mn, up 5.9% YoY and down 2.8% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 20,131Mn).

Focus on increasing market share with new launches:

While the domestic market showed slow growth, BJAUT is focusing on introducing new models and variants to cater to different customer choices and increase market share, particularly in the 125cc plus segments. The company plans on launching an erickshaw, and enhancing the Chetak series. The E-3W market share in FY25 increased to 33% from 17% in FY24 and for the Chetak electric scooter market share was 25% in Q4FY25 compared to 13% in Q4FY24. Given the company’s performance in the EV segment along with a rich product pipeline, we believe BJAUT is poised to perform well in these segments

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