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Healthy growth visible across segments

October wholesales have remained healthy across segments and OEMs, largely in line with expectations. PV wholesales for the four listed players grew 11% YoY, led by MM (+31%, above expectations) and TTMT (+27%, in line). MSIL reported a 7% YoY growth in sales, reaching 221k units (record high) over a high base, broadly in line with estimates. However, HMIL underperformed within the PV segment, posting flat YoY growth. In 2Ws, BJAUT and HMCL are yet to report their numbers. Meanwhile, both TVS (+11%) and RE (+13%) have delivered performances in line with estimates. The top three CV players registered a healthy 12% YoY growth, led by double-digit growth by all three listed peers. However, while AL posted a 16% YoY growth over a low base, sales declined 5% MoM and came in below estimates. Given the seasonal anomaly in the current month, tractor growth was expected to normalize after a record-high growth in September. However, MM posted 12.5% YoY growth (ahead of expectations) over a high base, while Escorts posted a 4% growth. We expect the demand uptick to continue going forward, supported by positive consumer sentiment. As demand recovers, we expect discounts to gradually reduce after the festive season. Within OEMs, MSIL, MM, HMIL, and TVS are our top picks.

* PVs (in line): Customer footfalls, bookings, inquiries, and deliveries have surged following the GST rate cuts. PVs continued to witness healthy retail demand during the festive season, leading most PV OEMs to post strong wholesales in October. MSIL’s Oct sales rose 7% YoY to 221k units (in line), driven largely by strong demand in UVs, compact cars, and vans. Retail sales grew 20% YoY to 240k units. Inventory levels at the end of October declined to about three weeks, which is below normal. Sales could have been even higher if not for a missed export shipment (which will flow into the next month). Consequently, exports declined 5% YoY. MM posted record-high UV sales of 71.6k units, marking a 31% YoY increase, well ahead of our estimates of 60k units. TTMT posted a healthy 27% YoY growth for PVs to 61k units (flat mom) and was in line with our estimates. Hyundai delivered a disappointing performance, with sales remaining flat YoY at 70k units. Overall, PV wholesale volumes grew 11.4% YoY for the four listed players in Sep’25 and 4% YoY on a YTD basis.

* 2Ws (in line): BJAUT and HMCL are yet to report their numbers. TVSL maintained its steady pace, posting 11% YoY growth in October to 544k units (in line). While motorcycle sales grew 16% YoY, scooter sales rose 7% YoY. 3Ws witnessed a strong YoY growth of 70%, reaching 18,407 units. RE posted a 13% YoY growth to 125k units (in line). Domestic sales grew 15% YoY, while exports declined 7% YoY to 8.1k units.

* CVs (in line): The three listed players posted a healthy ~12% YoY growth in CV sales in Oct’25 over last year’s low base. TTMT and VECV sales were in line, while AL missed estimates. TTMT posted a 10% YoY growth in CV sales to 37.5k units. Domestic sales rose 7% YoY, and exports grew by a solid 56% YoY. VECV outperformed the industry with a 13% YoY growth to 8k units for Oct’25. Ashok Leyland’s sales rose 16% YoY over a low base to 17.8k units, while they reduced 5% MoM. On a YTD basis, the top three CV players posted a 5% YoY growth.

* Tractors (mixed): The two listed tractor players posted 11% YoY growth in tractor volumes in Oct’25. It is important to note that due to the shift in festive dates (Navratri falling in October last year vs September this year), we expected tractor sales to normalize in October. However, MM posted a strong 12.5% YoY growth in tractor volumes to 73.6k units over last year’s high base, outperforming our estimates. On the other hand, Escorts posted a 4% YoY growth in tractors, in line with expectations. Combined tractor sales for both companies increased 17% YoY on a YTD basis.

* Valuation and view: Wholesales for Oct’25 were healthy across segments and broadly in line with expectations. Notably, demand for entry-level vehicles in both 2W and PV segments is showing a marked pickup. We expect this demand momentum to continue, supported by positive consumption sentiment. With a recovery in demand, we expect discounts to reduce gradually after the festive season. Within OEMs, MSIL, MM, HMIL, and TVS are our top picks.

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