IGI Logo

The 2024/25 U.S. oilseed production forecast stands at 131.2 million tons, with a slight increase due to higher cottonseed production. Soybean supply and usage projections remain stable, while soybean oil production rises due to a higher extraction rate. Export projections for soybean oil are raised by 500 million pounds, reaching 1.1 billion pounds, supported by strong export commitments. Global oilseed production is also up, driven by a higher soybean production forecast, especially for Argentina, Bolivia, and Canada. However, rapeseed production sees a decline, primarily due to lower yields in Canada. Global soybean oil exports and vegetable oil stocks are adjusted in light of shifting global production dynamics.

Key Highlights

* U.S. oilseed production forecast for 2024/25: 131.2 million tons.

* Soybean oil production raised on higher extraction rates.

* U.S. soybean oil exports increased by 500 million pounds.

* Global soybean production forecast up, led by Argentina and Bolivia.

* Global vegetable oil ending stocks reduced by 7% year-over-year.

The 2024/25 U.S. oilseed production forecast has been set at 131.2 million tons, marking a slight increase due to higher cottonseed production. Soybean production projections remain unchanged, while soybean oil output is raised due to an improved extraction rate. This adjustment leads to a boost in soybean oil exports, which are raised by 500 million pounds, bringing the total to 1.1 billion pounds. On the pricing front, the U.S. soybean price forecast has been lowered to $10.20 per bushel, reflecting a decline of $0.60 from the previous forecast, while soybean meal and oil prices remain relatively stable.

Internationally, global oilseed production is revised upward for 2024/25, mainly driven by a higher forecast for soybean output. This includes an increase of 1.7 million tons in soybean production, particularly in Argentina, Bolivia, and Canada. Meanwhile, rapeseed production is cut by 1.1 million tons due to lower yields in Canada. Global soybean oil exports are boosted by higher shipments from Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S., partially offsetting a decline in palm oil exports. The overall vegetable oil ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to decrease by 7% compared to last year, reaching 27.9 million tons.

Finally

The U.S. oilseed market for 2024/25 sees production increases primarily in soybean oil and cottonseed, while global oilseed dynamics shift with adjusted export and stock projections.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer