Real Estate Sector Update : Record quarter for listed developers, beating the macro trends by Kotak Institutional Equities

Record quarter for listed developers, beating the macro trends
Listed developers witnessed their best-ever quarter, with aggregate pre-sales of Rs432 bn (+45% yoy), achieving 31% of the targeted Rs1.4 tn (+20% yoy) and gaining further market share. Prestige and DLF led the growth momentum with quarterly sales of Rs121 bn and Rs114 bn, respectively. The overall industry had a relatively modest start, with sales growth of 9% yoy, aided by 13% yoy increase in blended realizations and a lukewarm 4% yoy decline in volumes at 238 mn sq. ft in 1QFY26. The volume decline was led by Pune (-22% yoy), MMR (-19%) and Hyderabad (-12%), while Bengaluru was flat and NCR continued its strong showing with 43% yoy growth. Market share gains and entry into new cities keep us constructive on listed developers in an environment of moderating industry volumes.
Modest start to the year—mixed trends across cities
All-India residential sales in 1QFY26 were modest at 238 mn sq. ft (-4% yoy, -5% qoq), with lower launches of 229 mn sq. ft (-12% yoy, -5% qoq). The average realization rose to Rs9,158/sq. ft (+13% yoy, +1% qoq), leading to sales value growing 9% yoy. The weakness in sales volumes was led by MMR, which saw sales of 32.4 mn sq. ft (-19% yoy, -17% qoq), on the back of launches of just 24 mn sq. ft (-51% yoy, -29% qoq). Pune was also weak with sales at 23.9 mn sq. ft (-22% yoy), as launches declined 28% yoy. Hyderabad continued to slide with sales of 27.6 mn sq. ft (-12% yoy, -6% qoq), despite 10% yoy increase in launches. Bengaluru saw flat sales at 24.7 mn sq. ft (-1% yoy, -8% qoq), even as launches rose to 32 mn sq. ft (+26% yoy, -9% qoq). NCR continued its strong momentum, with sales of 32.6 mn sq. ft (+43% yoy, +15% qoq), on the back of launches of 36.5 mn sq. ft (+41% yoy, +27% qoq), as the key cities of Gurugram and Greater Noida saw strong growth, while Ghaziabad benefited from the Prestige launch.
Measured inventory levels; pricing growth remains healthy
Overall inventory across India stood at 1.5 bn sq. ft (-3% yoy, -1% qoq) as of June 2025, at 1.5 years of trailing 12 months sales. The average realization saw healthy growth to Rs9,158/sq. ft (+13% yoy, +1% qoq) in 1QFY26, led by Ghaziabad at Rs10,966/sq. ft (+58% yoy, due to Prestige launch), Greater Noida at Rs10,204/sq. ft (+24% yoy), Gurugram at Rs20,990/sq. ft (+20% yoy), Chennai at Rs8,247/sq. ft (+16% yoy), Bengaluru at Rs9,975/sq. ft (+15% yoy) and Mumbai at Rs25,196/sq. ft (+14% yoy). On the other hand, Pune (+9% yoy), Hyderabad (+8% yoy) and Thane (+7% yoy) saw a tad lower, yet healthy, pricing growth.
Strong quarter for listed developers, leading to market share gains
Our coverage players reported their best-ever quarterly pre-sales of Rs432 bn (+45% yoy), with all-India market share rising to 20%. The strong growth was led by Prestige (+300% yoy off a weak base) and DLF (+78% yoy off a low base), while Godrej (-18% yoy on a strong base) and Brigade (+3% yoy) delivered a muted performance. NCR continues to contribute strongly to our coverage players’ pre-sales. Cumulative collections stood at Rs233 bn, aided by new launches and completions—the second-best quarter ever, after Rs238 bn collections in 4QFY25.
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