Auto Monthly Sales Volume by Axis Securities
Strong 2W/3W & Tractor Momentum; PV/CV Growth Normalizes
Over Apr–Nov’26, Cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 7% YoY to 1.7 Cr units, supported by strong performances from TVS (+15%), RE (+25%), and Hero (+30%), which more than offset a marginal decline in Bajaj (-1%). In contrast, 2W exports reflected improved traction across global markets. On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 16% YoY to 5.5 Lc units, led by TVS (+57%) and M&M (+28%), while Bajaj reported modest 3% growth. The domestic PV industry posted a ~4% YoY growth to ~30.5 Lc units, driven by strong performance from Toyota Kirloskar (+19%), M&M (+18%), Kia India (+10%), Tata Motors (+5%) and JSW MG Motor (+23%). However, Hyundai declined 7% YoY, and Maruti Suzuki remained flat. Domestic CV volumes increased 6% YTD to 6.2 Lc units, indicating a gradual recovery supported by stable freight demand. Domestic tractor (Exhibit 2) sales rose 19%, driven by strong growth from M&M (+20%), VST (+45%), and Escorts (+11%). The overall industry outlook remains optimistic, with gradual demand recovery, a reduction in the GST rate, and income tax relief as key factors driving demand in H2FY26.
2W/3W Wholesale Nos: In Nov’25, 2W OEM sales improved, led by Eicher Motors (+25% YoY) and TVS (+20% YoY). Exports momentum remained strong, driven by Hero, Bajaj and TVS. Going ahead, potential upside triggers for domestic demand include (i) government-led consumption measures (Income Tax relief/ GST reduction), (ii) a rural demand uptick, and (iii) New model launches. The three-wheeler (3W) segment posted a strong growth of 39% YoY but declined 5% MoM, with TVS (+147% YoY), Bajaj Auto (+21%YoY) and M&M (+7% YoY).
PV Wholesale Nos: In Nov’25, domestic PV sales rose ~13% YoY but fell 15% MoM, driven by festive demand and GST reductions. Tata Motors and M&M registered the highest growth at 22% each, followed by Maruti Suzuki (+20% YoY), Toyota Kirloskar (+18%), Kia India (+15%) and Hyundai (+4%). On the other hand, JSW MG Motor’s wholesale declined 4% YoY, respectively. Looking ahead in H2FY26/FY27, we remain cautiously positive and expect industry volumes to grow in high single digits, supported by a reduction in GST rate and improving affordability for consumers.
CV Wholesale Nos: Our proxy for CV domestic dispatches witnessed a 23% YoY growth but declined by 11% MoM in domestic volumes; Maruti and M&M witnessed growth of 24% and 13% YoY, respectively. VECV posted the highest surge at 36% YoY, followed by Ashok Leyland (+32%) and Tata Motors (+25%). We expect mid-single-digit industry growth in H2FY26 for CV players, driven by growing demand in the Bus segment.
Growing Volumes in the Tractor Industry: Our proxy for the tractor segment saw volume growth of 35% YoY but declined 40% MoM, supported by favourable monsoons and high reservoir levels. VST Tillers volume surged by 146% YoY, followed by M&M (+33% YoY) and Escort Kubota (+16% YoY). Looking ahead into H2FY26, we expect the positive momentum to continue, driven by GST reductions, adequate reservoir levels, and improved kharif harvest.
In the long term, we prefer TVS Motors, Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto in 2Ws (Eicher seems fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains .
2W/3W Segment
* TVS Motors’ total 2W sales in Nov’25 were up ~27% YoY but fell 8% MoM; 3W sales grew 147% YoY and 18% MoM. Exports rose 58% YoY and 28% MoM.
* Bajaj Auto’s total 2W sales in Nov’25 were down by 1% YoY and 24% MoM; 2W/exports up 8% YoY and 1% MoM.
* Hero MotoCorp: Total 2W sales in Nov’25 were up 32% YoY but down by 5% MoM.
* RE total sales were up 22% YoY but declined 19% MoM; Exports grew 2% YoY and ~27% MoM.
PV & CV Segment
* Maruti Suzuki’s total direct domestic sales in Nov’25 surged by 20%YoY but declined 3.5% MoM; The total CV sales improved 24% YoY but fell 17% MoM.
* M&M’s PV division reported growth of 22% YoY but fell 21% MoM. LCV sales were up 13% YoY but declined 22% MoM.
* Tata Motors’ total PV sales rose 22% YoY but were down 6% MoM; CV sales were up 25% YoY but declined 7% MoM.
* Ashok Leyland's total sales were up 29% YoY but were down 3% MoM.
* Eicher Motors’ (VECV) total CV sales rose 37% YoY but were down 13% MoM.
Tractor Segment
* M&M’s total tractor sales were up 33% YoY but down 41% MoM.
* Escorts Kubota Limited tractor sales increased 16% YoY but declined 45% MoM.
* VST Tillers & Tractors sales surged 146% YoY and 15% MoM.
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