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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 31th july 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Comex Gold August futures slipped to a one-month low of $3,263.9/oz yesterday after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting. Fed Chair Powell’s tone remained hawkish as he signaled no urgency for a rate cut, citing a softening labor market and inflation risks. This, coupled with stronger-than-expected US data pushed the U.S. dollar to a two-month high of 99.90. July ADP employment rose by 104K, beating estimates and marking the largest gain in 4 months. Additionally, Q2 GDP expanded 3.0% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing expectations of 2.4%. Today, gold is trading flat near $3,300 as markets now focus on upcoming US PCE and jobless claims data for further monetary policy cues, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 54% probability of a 25-bps cut in September, down from 60%.

WTI crude oil prices surged above $70 per barrel for the first time in six weeks, supported by persistent concerns over supply tightness and looming threat of secondary U.S. sanctions targeting countries that continue to import Russian crude. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department unveiled its most extensive Iran-related sanctions package since 2018, targeting over 115 individuals, vessels, and entities in a renewed effort to curb Iranian oil exports. The latest EIA report presented a mixed picture as U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 7.7 million barrels for the week ending July 25, distillate stocks also increased by 3.6 million barrels, while gasoline inventories declined by 2.7 million barrels. Today, oil prices remain supported near the $70 level, buoyed by Trump’s threat of steep tariffs on China if it continues buying Russian oil, alongside the U.S. ramping up its maximum pressure campaign against Iran.