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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 17th Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities 

Spot gold breached the $3,700/oz level for the first time ever on Tuesday, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data for August, including retail sales rising 0.6% month-over-month versus 0.2% forecast, and unexpected increase in manufacturing output, gold extended gains as traders focused on the outlook for monetary easing. Safe-haven demand and continued central bank buying further supported the rally. Today, spot gold eased slightly to $3,675/oz as the dollar attempted a recovery from near its lowest level in three years ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision. Investor attention now turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference and the updated dot plot, with markets seeking guidance on the Fed’s policy path through the remainder of 2025.

WTI Crude rose to $64.8/bbl and extended gains for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, driven by concerns over supply disruptions following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Markets are also watching for potential EU sanctions on India and China due to their continued trade with Moscow, after Donald Trump reiterated that the U.S. could impose fresh sanctions on Russian crude, but only if NATO allies halt Russian oil purchases and apply steep duties on key trading partners. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the group will propose speeding up the phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports. WTI crude holds near $64.5/bbl today amid speculation that Russia may be forced to cut output due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on its oil facilities, with the latest strike setting the Saratov refinery ablaze. Traders are also awaiting the upcoming EIA report after the API estimated a 3.42 million barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending September 12.