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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Comex Gold closed higher on Monday, settling above $2,911 per ounce, driven by ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies that fueled demand for safe-haven assets. The thin trading session, due to the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday, saw increased concerns as President Donald Trump’s tariff plans prompted retaliatory threats from European officials, heightening fears of a trade war. Additionally, a weaker dollar supported bullion prices after soft U.S. retail sales data revived expectations of potential Fed rate cuts. Investors are now awaiting release of the FOMC meeting minutes for any hints on future policy, as Fed Chair Powell and other officials have recently stated that the central bank is not in a rush to cut rates. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have all emphasized a steady policy approach, with Bowman noting a gradual decline in inflation but ongoing risks, and Waller advocating for holding policy until inflation clearly falls. Today, Comex gold is trading above $2,925 as investors continue to monitor tensions between the U.S. and European Union, as well as developments in Ukraine peace talks.

WTI crude oil prices saw a sharp rise yesterday, reaching $71.40 per barrel, following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's pumping station in the Krasnodar region, which disrupted exports through the key pipeline from Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is reportedly weighing the option of delaying the planned increase in oil supply scheduled for April, despite calls from U.S. President Trump to reduce oil prices. However, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak clarified that OPEC and its partners have not yet discussed any such delay. In addition, oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq are expected to resume by the end of March. Today, WTI oil remains stable as traders monitor any updates on the potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia. Attention is also on the possibility of a delay in the planned supply increase, which, if implemented, would mark the fourth time the OPEC+ alliance has postponed efforts to restore production that was halted in 2022.

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