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IPM pulse—a solid quarter

IPM reported a robust 15% yoy growth in Dec 2025, on a slightly favorable base of 6.8% yoy growth in Dec 2024. All major therapies grew in double digits, except anti-infectives. In 3QFY26, IPM grew by a healthy 11.8% yoy. IPM growth in MAT Dec 2025 stood at 8.9% yoy. We highlight that while pricing contributed the bulk of the IPM growth in MAT Dec 2025, the contribution from volumes increased to 210 bps versus 50 bps in MAT Dec 2024. Led by continued benefits from pricing, new launches, acquisitions and in-licensing deals, we bake in 8-16% yoy domestic sales growth in FY2026E for our coverage. Sun, Lupin, Cipla and Emcure are our preferred picks in the space.

Pfizer and Sun growth leaders; Mankind picks up pace, yet lags IPM

IPM grew by 15% yoy in Dec 2025 (on a base of 6.8% yoy in Dec 2024). Chronic therapies grew by 19% yoy and acute therapies by 12% yoy in Dec 2025. The bulk of the IPM growth in Dec 2025 was driven by therapies such as oncology, cardiac, anti-diabetic, urology, gynae, respiratory, VMN and neuro. In Dec 2025, revenues of MNC companies grew 16.9% yoy, higher than 14.6% yoy sales growth for domestic companies. Including unlisted companies, growth leaders in Dec 2025 were Pfizer, Sun, Glenmark, Intas, Aristo, Zydus, Lupin, Eris, Torrent, Dr Reddy’s, Ipca and Cipla, which posted 15-20% yoy sales growth. On the other hand, key underperformers during the month were Jagsonpal, Alembic, FDC, Abbott and Indoco, which posted sales growth of 1-9% yoy. We highlight that despite an improvement in growth to 12.5% yoy in Dec 2025 (8.5% yoy in 3QFY26), Mankind continues to lag the IPM.

Market share trends: Cipla, Glenmark top gainers; FDC, Abbott top losers

IPM growth of 8.9% yoy in MAT Dec 2025 (on a base of 7.7% yoy) was led by 430 bps yoy contribution from higher pricing and 250 bps yoy contribution from new launches. Volume growth contributed 210 bps to IPM growth in MAT Dec 2025, compared to 50 bps in MAT Dec 2024. Among the top 25 companies, Cipla, Glenmark, Pfizer, Sun, GSK and Lupin have gained maximum share over the past six months. On the other hand, FDC, Abbott, Emcure, Mankind, Alkem, Ipca, USV and Torrent have lost maximum share in the past six months. Mounjaro remained the largest brand by sales in Dec 2025, reporting sales of Rs1.4 bn, compared to Rs1.3 bn each in Nov/Oct 2025 and Rs1.1 bn in Sep 2025.

Risk of further acceleration in generics adoption not being adequately baked in

We reiterate that one of the key reasons for muted branded IPM volume growth is continued traction in the alternate channels. As highlighted in our report (link), factoring in the volume impact from these channels, we estimate a 120-160 bps annual dent on branded IPM growth, at least until FY2028E. With Jan Aushadhi’s rapid expansion plan (~17k stores now), there is a risk of this hit on IPM swelling further. We highlight that current domestic valuations imply the ongoing steady decline in the share of branded generics will continue and do not factor in any further growth deceleration in the next few years. If the share of branded slips further, there is scope for further derating. Yet, a forced change might be ineffective unless the quality conundrum is addressed.

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