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Developments over the past week:

* India has made its first-ever export of jet fuel, c.60,000 metric tons, to the US for Chevron, as per trade sources. This development was necessitated by a fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery in California, which disrupted local jet-fuel production and opened a rare export window.

* Russia’s benchmark Urals crude plunged to around USD 36.6/barrel(b) last week, its weakest level since early 2023.

* India and the US sealed their first structured long-term contract for LPG. Under this, Indian state-run firms will import about 2.2 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) from the US Gulf Coast from 2026. The volume accounts for 10% of India’s annual LPG imports.

In our opinion:

* The jet-fuel export indicates the growing importance of Indian refineries among the global refined-fuel trade.

* One of out of the three PSU refineries continue to import Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities and tends to benefit from record low Urals in this quarter. Overall, we continue to see stronger GRMs, healthy retail margin and lower LPG under-recoveries for PSUs.

* US LPG freight cost will lead to an inflated import bill. Nevertheless, on the other hand, it will facilitate India to improve energy ties with the US. This substantiates our earlier insight, wherein we noted that the US, on the back of tariffs, is gaining market share in the global oil & gas supply.

Overall, we maintain our Brent estimate of USD 69.0/barrel (b) for the Calendar Year 2025 (as published on June 13th , 2025), as compared to YTD average of USD 68.8/b. We estimate the Brent to average at USD65.0/b in CY26.

Exhibit 1: Break-up of India’s Oil Imports

Exhibit 2: Catalysts for Brent

Exhibit 3: Brent estimates

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