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2026-07-03 12:19:23 pm | Source: Prabhudas Lilladher Capital
Automobiles Sector Update : No Sign of Weakness in Demand by PL Capital
Automobiles Sector Update : No Sign of Weakness in Demand by PL Capital

Jun’26 saw strong wholesale growth across the auto segments as sentiment remains positive. PVs reported growth in 20s, while 2Ws saw stable growth with scooters growing faster than motorcycles. PV inventory was slightly higher at ~32 days at May’26-end vs. ~29 days at Apr’26-end, warranting dispatch discipline. CV industry reported strong performance broadly as it sees demand from infra/ mining activities & freight availability (HCV), e-com/ FMCG/ last-mile mobility (ILMCV), and replacement cycle in the medium term, although RM cost pressures (expected to persist) and macroeconomic uncertainties impacted fleet expansion decisions in the short term. Tractors saw positive rural sentiments with adequate reservoir levels offsetting impact from delayed monsoons as kharif sowing progresses. Growth is expected to moderate in the upcoming quarters with El Nino impact, monsoon progression, and input cost inflation as key monitorables, while fertilizer subsidies and other support measures are likely to cushion some impact.

OEM-wise highlights

Mahindra & Mahindra: Strong auto growth as supply chain issues resolved toward Jun’26-end, exports more than double. Modest growth in T&B division, while tractors continue strong growth Overall group sales grew +26.2% YoY to 169.4k units. Total auto division sales grew +36.6% (excl. T&B) to 106.2k units; domestic UVs, +27.7% YoY (60.4k units); and LCVs, +34.8% (26.1k units). 3Ws continued their strong growth trajectory (+63.5% YoY) to reach 13.8k units. Auto exports more than doubled. Farm equipment volumes increased by +12.3% YoY to 59.9k units (domestic: +12.4%, exports: +8.3%), despite healthy base. Total T&B division sales (CV > 3.5T, incl. SML) grew +4.9% YoY to 3.3k units, dragged by cargo vehicles. Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +21.1% (467.9k units), UVs: +14.9% (174.7k units), LCVs (<3.5T): +19.8%, T&Bs: +11.1%, 3Ws: +76.3%, auto exports: +64.5%, tractors (incl exports): +17.9%.

Maruti Suzuki: Strong sales across segments on a weak base, export growth slows down Overall, 200.4k units were sold (+19.3% YoY). Total domestic sales (excl. sales to other OEMs) increased +23.8% YoY (147.2k units); exports grew to 42.8k units (+13.0% YoY). Domestic passenger cars increased to 75.2k units (+22.1%), and UVs, +28.7% YoY (61.7k units). LCVs (super carry) increased by 21.8% to 3.0k units. SUVs accounted for 41.9% (+160bps YoY, +30bps MoM) of total domestic PV sales. Export penetration stood at 21.3% of the overall portfolio (-120bps YoY, +410bps MoM). Overall production volumes for Jun’26 indicate strong growth in mini and SUV segments. Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +29.3% (682.7k units), domestic PV: +29.8%, domestic LCV: +12.6%, exports: +28.6%.

Tata Motors PV: Strong domestic sales (incl. EVs) continue, although on a low base PV sales grew +69.4% YoY to 63.1k units. Domestic sales rose +67.4% to 62.1k units, while exports surged ~7x on a low base. Total EV sales reached 14.8k units (+183.1% YoY, +40.7% MoM) with 23.5% penetration (+940bps YoY, +590bps MoM). Q1FY27 YoY: total PVs: +46.3% (182.6k units), domestic: +45.5%, exports: 2.5x, EVs: 2x with penetration at +18.9%.

Hyundai Motor India: Weak domestic sales due to supplier fire incident. Sales to recover in Q2FY27; exports decline for the 4 th consecutive month on a high base Overall volumes declined -15.7% YoY to 51.3k units. Domestic sales declined -10.0% (39.6k units). Exports (which is the management’s focus) de-grew by -30.8% YoY (22.8% penetration). Q1FY27 YoY: overall: -1.3% (178.1k units), domestic: +5.4%, exports: -19.6%.

Bajaj Auto: Exports continue to surge, while domestic sales moderate Overall sales grew +28.4% YoY to 463.2k units. 2W volumes rose +30.5% YoY to 389.4k units: domestic volumes grew +11.8% (167.0k units) and exports surged by +49.1% YoY (222.4k units). CV volumes grew +18.4% YoY to 73.8k units with domestic growth at +9.5% YoY. Q1FY27 YoY: overall sales: +29.4% (1.44mn units), domestic: +11.2%, exports: +53.7%, 2Ws: +28.9% (domestic: +10.8%, exports: +51.6%), CVs: +32.8% (domestic: +13.3%, exports: +68.8%).

Eicher Motors:

* Royal Enfield: Double-digit growth continues, while 350cc+ segment and international business (IB) recorded sustained decline. Overall volumes increased by +27.4% YoY (114.0k units), with strong domestic sales growth of +33.8% (102.9k units), while IB declined (-11.8% YoY). Sub-350cc models grew +35.8% YoY (104.1k units), while 350cc+ models declined by -23.1% YoY. Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +24.4% (330.4k units), sub-350cc: +29.5% (294.6k units), 350cc+: -6.0%, domestic: +31.6% (301.2k units), IB: -20.4%.

* VECV: Strong volume growth across segments, except domestic HD buses. Overall volumes grew by +29.3% YoY to 9.5k units. Domestic HD trucks/SCVs led growth (LMD < 18.5T: +37.9% at 4.4k units, HD ≥ 18.5T: +21.6%), domestic LMD bus sales grew 21.1%, while HD bus declined -26.7%. Exports increased by +41.6%, while Volvo T&B grew by +51.5% YoY. Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +14.8% (24.8k units), domestic: +15.4%, exports: +1.0%, Volvo T&B: +36.8%.

Hero MotoCorp: Decline in domestic sales and motorcycles partially offset by strong momentum in scooters and exports. Vahan retail registrations rise +18% YoY to 466k units Overall volumes declined -2.3% YoY to 541.2k units. Domestic volumes de-grew -4.2% (502.9k units), while exports jumped +32.8% YoY. Total motorcycle sales de-grew -6.6% YoY to 478.7k units. Scooter sales continued to surge (+51.2% YoY). Its e-2W VIDA recorded 21,812 Vahan retail registrations (+185% YoY, +8% MoM). Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +22.7% (1.68mn units), motorcycles: +16.5% (1.48mn units), scooters: 2x, domestic: +20.7% (1.57mn units), exports: +63.3% (6.3% penetration)

TVS Motor: Strong sales growth sustained across the portfolio Overall volumes jumped +46.8% YoY to 590.0k units. 2Ws grew +46.6% YoY to 565.4k units with domestic volumes increasing +46.3% YoY, and sustained exports momentum (+47.5% YoY). Overall, motorcycle sales surged by +41.5% YoY to 267.1k units, and scooters grew significantly by +52.8% YoY to 248.0k units. EV sales surged more than 3x YoY (+11.2% MoM) to 48.5k units. 3W sales increased by +50.8% YoY (24.6k units) with contribution from both domestic and export sales. Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +27.7% (1.63mn units), scooters: +36.3%, motorcycles: +19.4%, group total exports: +32.9%, domestic: +25.7% (1.16mn units).

Ashok Leyland: Strong truck and LCV sales offset decline in MHCV buses Overall volumes grew by +25.2% YoY to 19.2k units. Domestic volumes increased by +26.3% YoY (17.9k units), with MHCV trucks increasing by +44.3%, LCVs growing +27.6% YoY, and MHCV buses declining by -27.7%,. Exports rose +11.6% YoY. Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +10.2% (48.8k units), domestic: +12.3%, exports: -18.3%, overall MHCV buses: -28.9%, MHCV trucks: +17.5%, LCVs: +19.6%.

Tata Motors CV: Strong momentum sustained across sub-segments e-SCVs and pick-ups achieved highest ever salience of ~10% for May-Jun’26 with increasing customer interest in electric heavy trucks. Growth in commercial passenger segment was driven by school transport and government orders. Indonesia shipments commenced with gradual resumption of supply to the Middle East after a 2-month pause. The management expects sustained momentum in coming quarters with improving customer sentiments, improving auto/ port logistics, and growth in core sectors/ e-com with monsoon being a key monitorable. Overall sales grew +34.9% YoY to 40.8k units (double-digit growth across all sub-segments. Domestic sales increased +31.0% YoY (36.6k units), while exports surged by +82.7% YoY. MH&ICV grew +29% YoY (domestic: +27% YoY). Q1FY27 YoY: overall: +26.7% (108.5k units), domestic: +26.1%, exports: +34.9%, MH&ICV: +19%

Escorts Kubota: Strong domestic tractor sales continue, but near-term risks stem from rising input costs and El Nino impact. Surge in construction equipment (CE) on a weak base, with positive near-term outlook Tractors continued upward trajectory (+19.1% YoY to 13.7k units) with domestic sales growing +19.8% to 13.2k units from sustained positive rural sentiments, despite delayed/ deficient rainfall. CE surge of +49.1% YoY was due to a low base and resilient demand with healthy equipment utilization from government infra spending and favorable construction conditions (from weaker monsoon outlook). Q1FY27 YoY: tractors overall: +20.5%, tractors domestic: +22.9% (35.5k units), CE: +27.4% (1.3k units).

 

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