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2026-07-03 11:53:34 am | Source: Elara Capital
Consumer Discretionary Sector Update : Expect steady recovery across pockets by Elara Capital
Consumer Discretionary Sector Update : Expect steady recovery across pockets by Elara Capital

Within Spirits, expect Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN) to sustain momentum in P&A volume into Q 1FY27 E with premium whisky and vodka . This should lift margin, even as the Regular portfolio may soften against a high base. For United Spirits (UNITDSPR IN) state - level duty pressure in Maharashtra and Karnataka may weigh on P&A volume and the Popular segment, though healthy pricing may keep realization growth intact and cushion margin. Within the Beer segment , an extended summer may drive a 5% volume growth for United Breweries (UBBL IN) , though glass inflation may weigh on profitability . DMART should see steady, LFL -led revenue growth with margin broadly holding. Within QSR, recovery is intact . Delivery -driven Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) may post 3 -4% LFL , and RBA may sustain Q4 traction into Q1 E . Expect 3.5% SSSG in Q1E for WESTLIFE . Pizza Hut may be muted on sales and expansion . Margin may diverge as food inflation bites, partly offset by pricing . JUBI holds firm, KFC operators may post improve ment led by pricing action , and Pizza Hut may continue to post loss es. TRENT may post 20% Y oY sales growth , backed by store expansion, while NYKAA should sustain its momentum across both BPC and Fashion GMV s. DMart may deliver 17% sales growth with steady YoY margin in Q1E

Alcobev – Realization strong:

P&A growth continues to diverge – RDCK may post strong P&A volume growth of ~2 8% YoY, led by After Dark Whisky , Magic Moment and broad - based traction. Reali zation may grow ~3% YoY. The Regular segment may decline due to a high base in Andhra Pradesh . EBITDAM may rise to ~18 .5% in Q 1E ( 15.4% in Q 1FY26 – flat QoQ), on favorable mix and pricing. In contrast, UNITDSPR ’s P&A volume may drop to 1% YoY , led by muted Maharashtra and K arna taka . The Popular segment may fac e the steepest strain (~ 18% YoY drop). Strong r eali zation -led growth of ~ 7.5% YoY in P&A should partly offset volume drop and higher glass prices may weigh on gross margin , thus impacting EBITDAM by ~100bps YoY to ~1 5.2%. Within beer, UBBL may post a volume growth of 5% with realization growth of 3% , led by extended summ ers. We expect gross margin compression to drive a 65bps drop in EBITDAM to 10.2% in Q1E.

DMart – LFL-led momentum:

DMart ’s standalone sales may grow ~17% YoY (8% LFL ). It added three stores in Q1 (total 503 , up 19% YoY) , slightly below prior trend. EBITDA margin may be flat YoY at 8.1% (up 93bps QoQ), led by operating leverage and stable gross margin.

TRENT – Sales to grow 20% YoY:

In Q1 , TRENT’s fashion store network grew 25.4% YoY – 972 stores of Zudio (+nine in Q1E); 300 for Westside (nil) , up 26.9% YoY and 21.0% YoY, respectively. Standalone sales may grow ~ 20% YoY ,on low -to-mid single digit LFL. Expect gross margin at 44.7 %, down 45 bps YoY and EBITDAM at 18.5% (up 101bps YoY)

NYKAA – GMV momentum to sustain:

Q1E sales may grow 26. 8% YoY (BPC GMV up 27.0% YoY ; Fashion GMV 2 8.0% YoY ). BPC take rate may dip 41bps QoQ to 62. 5% on seasonality. Profitability may improve in Fashion (0.7% margin ). Con solidated EBITDA margin may reach 8.7%, up 30bps QoQ and 217bps YoY.

 

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SEBI Registration number is INH000000933

 

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