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Gold

Gold yesterday settled higher by 0.74% at 153,663 as traders assessed another setback in Middle East peace negotiations and growing concerns over prolonged geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal aimed at ending the 10-week conflict, calling it “totally unacceptable,” while Iran responded that it would “never bow,” increasing uncertainty in global financial markets. The escalation pushed crude oil prices higher, raising concerns over inflationary pressures and the broader economic impact of an extended energy shock. Market sentiment was also influenced by revised Federal Reserve rate expectations from major brokerages. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026, with rate cuts projected only in July and September 2027, while Goldman Sachs shifted its expected first rate cut to December 2026. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming US inflation data for additional policy direction, with markets currently pricing in nearly a 31% probability of a rate hike. Attention is also turning toward the expected summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, where discussions are likely to include Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and critical minerals. Physical gold demand in India remained subdued as higher prices discouraged fresh buying interest. Dealers quoted discounts of up to $15 per ounce and premiums of up to $6 over official domestic prices. India’s April gold imports are expected to fall to a near 30-year low of around 15 metric tons due to unexpected tax demands on banks. Meanwhile, Chinese premiums remained firm at $14–$20 per ounce amid continued safe-haven demand. The World Gold Council reported that India’s investment demand for gold surged 52% year-on-year to 82 metric tons during the March quarter, surpassing jewellery demand for the first time on record. Global gold demand rose 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 metric tons in Q1 2026, supported by strong bar, coin, and central bank purchases. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest remained unchanged at 9,206 while prices gained Rs1,133. Gold is getting support at 151,965, below which prices may test 150,265 levels, while resistance is seen at 154,900, with a move above likely to test 156,135.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150265-156135.

*  Gold gains as traders digested another setback in Middle East peace talks while awaiting further developments.

*  China gold production slips in first quarter, consumption rises

*  BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs are the latest brokerages to revise their U.S. Federal Reserve rate calls to later dates

Silver

Silver yesterday settled sharply higher by 6.26% at 278,311 as strong investor demand and persistent concerns over tight global supplies continued to support the market. Bullish sentiment was further strengthened by renewed geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a US-backed peace proposal, reducing hopes for a quick resolution to the ongoing 10-week Middle East conflict. The uncertainty boosted safe-haven buying interest across precious metals, while silver also benefited from its strong industrial demand outlook. According to the latest Silver Institute outlook, the global silver market is expected to remain in a structural deficit for the sixth consecutive year despite a slight moderation in industrial demand growth. The continuing supply-demand imbalance is reinforcing expectations that any short-term price correction may attract fresh buying interest from investors. Physical silver investment demand is projected to rise nearly 20% globally this year as investment interest improves across major markets following last year’s strong price rally. Market participants are also closely monitoring industrial activity trends in the US and China, particularly in sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics manufacturing, which remain key drivers of silver consumption. China’s silver imports surged to a record high in March, supported by strong retail investment demand and heavy stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers ahead of the April 1 export tax rebate cancellation. According to Chinese customs data, silver imports reached around 836 metric tons in March, nearly three times the historical March average. Elevated domestic silver premiums in China encouraged global traders to redirect shipments into the Chinese market through Hong Kong. As of end-April 2026, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,454 tonnes, slightly down by 0.1% from the previous month, equivalent to nearly 915,122 silver bars. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 6.48% to settle at 7,302 while prices gained Rs16,389. Silver is getting support at 266,385, below which prices may test 254,460 levels, while resistance is seen at 284,835, with a move above likely to test 291,360.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 254460-291360.

* Silver rose as resilient investor demand and ongoing supply concerns helped support the metal.

* The global silver market is expected to remain in a structural deficit for a sixth straight year

* Silver’s recent strength reflects a market still supported by structural tightness and improving investor appetite.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled sharply higher by 3.9% at 9,376 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over global supply disruptions. Market sentiment turned bullish after US President Donald Trump described Iran’s response to a US-backed peace proposal as “unacceptable,” reducing hopes for an immediate resolution to the ongoing conflict. Supply concerns intensified as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, keeping global crude markets tight and raising fears over disruptions to one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Attention is now focused on President Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing, where discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to include Iran and broader geopolitical developments. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China are expected to decline further in June as Chinese refiners reduced purchase nominations due to elevated oil prices linked to the ongoing conflict and tighter regional supplies. Shipping risks also remained elevated, with Kpler data showing that several crude tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz had switched off tracking systems to avoid potential Iranian attacks. Additional support came from tightening US inventory data. US crude oil inventories declined by 2.314 million barrels to 457.2 million barrels during the week ended May 1, while gasoline inventories fell by 2.504 million barrels and distillate stocks dropped by 1.294 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub also declined by 648,000 barrels. Although refinery activity slowed slightly, lower fuel inventories continued to support overall market sentiment. ANZ analysts expect Brent crude prices to remain above $90 per barrel through 2026 amid persistent supply concerns and gradual inventory rebuilding. Meanwhile, OPEC revised lower its global oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day due to the impact of Middle East tensions, though it maintained its full-year demand growth outlook unchanged. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 3.67% to settle at 10,829 while prices gained Rs352. Crude oil is getting support at 9,168, below which prices may test 8,961 levels, while resistance is seen at 9,572, with a move above likely to test 9,769.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8961-9769.

* Crude oil prices rallied a day after Trump calls Iran's response to US peace proposal 'unacceptable'

* 3 more tankers exit Strait of Hormuz with trackers switched off

* Saudi Arabian crude oil exports to China are expected to fall further in June

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rallied sharply yesterday, settling higher by 6.36% at 277.6, supported by continued declines in U.S. production and lower-than-expected storage injections. Output across the Lower 48 states has been trending lower as major producers, including EQT, curtailed production in response to weak spot market prices. Market sentiment also improved after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 63 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 1, below market expectations of 74 bcf and significantly lower than last year’s 104 bcf build as well as the five-year average increase of 77 bcf. The smaller storage build signaled tightening near-term fundamentals and helped reduce concerns regarding excess inventories. Although earlier mild spring weather had allowed stronger-than-normal inventory injections, the recent slowdown in production combined with gradually improving demand has narrowed the storage surplus to nearly 6% above seasonal averages, compared to around 7% a week earlier. Weather forecasts indicate mostly near-normal temperatures through May 23, with cooling demand expected to gradually replace late-season heating demand. However, gas flows to LNG export terminals have eased from April’s record levels due to seasonal maintenance activity, limiting further upside momentum. The EIA continues to project record U.S. gas production in coming years, forecasting output at 109.6 bcfd in 2026 and 112.6 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are also expected to rise steadily. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped by 10.57% to 26,850 while prices gained sharply. Natural gas now has immediate support at 267.5, with further support at 257.4, while resistance is seen at 282.9, followed by 288.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 257.4-288.2.

* Natural gas rose amid a continued drop in output

* Production has been trending lower, as major producers such as EQT curtailed output.

* The EIA reported a 63 bcf injection for the week ended May 1, below forecasts of 74 bcf

Copper

Copper prices surged sharply yesterday, settling higher by 3.33% at 1369.05, supported by growing supply concerns following Freeport’s announcement of a delay in the full recovery of its Grasberg mine operations in Indonesia. Additional support came from stronger-than-expected inflation data from China, where consumer prices rose 1.2% year-on-year in April, above expectations of 0.9%, while producer prices climbed 2.8%, marking the highest increase in nearly 45 months. The data improved overall sentiment toward industrial metals, although traders noted that higher factory-gate prices were mainly driven by rising energy and raw material costs rather than a strong recovery in domestic demand. Supply-side concerns continued to dominate the market as ongoing Middle East tensions disrupted shipments of sulphuric acid, a critical component used in copper refining. China’s decision to ban sulphuric acid exports from May through December has further tightened the supply outlook. Chile’s copper production has already declined nearly 6% during the first quarter of 2026, adding further pressure to global supply conditions. Meanwhile, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.6%, indicating tighter physical availability. The International Copper Study Group still projects the global copper market to shift into a surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 due to slower demand growth and rising secondary supply, though geopolitical risks continue to create uncertainty. Citi expects copper prices to remain supported above $13,000 per ton, while physical buying is likely to limit downside risks. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 4.67% to settle at 10,495 while prices gained sharply by 44.1 rupees. Copper is now getting support at 1340.9, with further support at 1312.6, while resistance is seen at 1386.2, followed by 1403.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1312.6-1403.2.

* Copper prices edged higher, supported by supply concerns after Freeport delayed a full recovery of its Grasberg mine.

* Copper production in Chile had already declined by around 6% in the first three months of 2026.

* Citi sees copper well – supported around $13,000/t in near – term

Zinc

Zinc prices extended gains yesterday, settling higher by 2.2% at 355.85, supported by stronger-than-expected inflation data from China that improved sentiment across the industrial metals complex. Market confidence was boosted after Chinese consumer and producer price data came in above expectations, signaling resilient industrial activity despite broader global economic uncertainties. Zinc also continued to draw support from tightening supply conditions, as the global zinc deficit remains one of the largest among major base metals despite rising production levels. Supply-side fundamentals remained supportive as falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango reflected tightening near-term availability. Lower treatment charges for zinc concentrate further highlighted constraints in raw material supply. Ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions continued to pressure the market, although some relief is expected from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and increased production from Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project. Swedish miner Boliden also indicated that production at its Garpenberg mine is expected to resume during the second quarter. In China, zinc concentrate inventories at ports declined sharply by 12,100 metric tons week-on-week, reinforcing concerns over concentrate shortages. Meanwhile, inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange initially declined 1.8%, though latest data showed a 3.1% increase from the previous release. Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to raise refined zinc output by 3.2% in the first half of the 2026/27 financial year, indicating expectations of firm demand conditions. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January, compared to a deficit of 75,100 tons in December. However, Goldman Sachs expects mine supply growth to slow significantly beyond 2026, potentially pushing the market outside China into deficit during 2027 and 2028. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased by 9% to settle at 2,168 while prices gained 7.65 rupees. Zinc is now getting support at 350.9, with further support at 345.8, while resistance is seen at 358.6, followed by 361.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 345.8-361.2.

* Zinc prices edged higher, supported by stronger-than-expected inflation data from China.

* The supply deficit for zinc is the largest among all major metals despite a jump in new production.

* Falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure

Aluminium

Aluminium prices moved sharply higher yesterday, settling up by 2% at 375.75, supported by persistent supply concerns from the Gulf region and strong manufacturing activity data from China. Market sentiment improved after better-than-expected Chinese economic indicators reinforced optimism over industrial demand for base metals. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to tighten global aluminium availability, keeping supply risks elevated and supporting prices across international markets. Supply-side fundamentals remained firm as Japanese aluminium port inventories fell 7.4% month-on-month to 279,800 metric tons, while buyers in Japan agreed to pay premiums of $350 to $353 per metric ton for April to June shipments, the highest levels seen in 11 years. JP Morgan expects aluminium prices to average around $3,500 per ton during the second half of 2026 and forecasts a global primary aluminium deficit of 1.9 million tons due to significant disruptions in Middle East supply. Bank of America also advanced its $4,000 per ton aluminium price target to the fourth quarter of 2026. China continued to play a major role in the market outlook. Aluminium imports into China rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, while exports surged 15% in April as tighter overseas supplies improved export opportunities. China’s primary aluminium production also increased 2.7% year-on-year in March to 3.85 million metric tons. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories rose 2% to 492,728 tons, although continued weekly outflows highlighted ongoing tightness in the physical market. Indonesia’s aluminium exports more than doubled in March, reaching the highest level since November 2023, while Emirates Global Aluminium’s Jebel Ali smelter has gradually returned closer to normal operating levels following earlier disruptions. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased by 7.49% to settle at 3,330 while prices gained 7.35 rupees. Aluminium is now getting support at 372.4, with further support at 369.1, while resistance is seen at 377.5, followed by 379.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 369.1-379.3.

* Aluminium gains as Gulf supply constraints persist.

* China aluminium exports jump 15% in April as Iran war squeezes global supply

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.0% to 492,728 tons, the highest in six years.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled lower by 1.18% at 16,034 as rising arrivals across key mandis in Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli created a temporary supply glut in the physical market. Farmers continued aggressive selling to generate liquidity ahead of Kharif sowing activities, while increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric triggered heavy discounting in average-quality lots. Export sentiment also remained cautious due to lingering Middle East tensions disrupting logistics and delaying fresh buying commitments. Additionally, the absence of any major weather disruption during the post-harvest period reduced the weather-related risk premium in prices. However, downside remained limited as arrivals in several producing regions of Maharashtra and Telangana continued to stay below normal for the peak season, tightening near-term supply availability. Quality concerns due to rhizome rot in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-grade turmeric. In major hubs such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are reportedly holding back quality stocks in anticipation of prices crossing Rs18,000 per quintal. Premium “Salem Fali” turmeric continued to command prices near Rs20,000 per quintal in spot markets. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks are around 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season, supporting the broader bullish outlook. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the EU and active procurement by Bangladesh for finger varieties also supported sentiment. The Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision in production estimates to 1.140 million tons further added strength to long-term fundamentals. Export data showed turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2026 rose 1% to 163,336 tonnes, while imports declined sharply by 40% to 12,476 tonnes. In Nizamabad spot market, turmeric prices ended at Rs15,551.9, down 0.92%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 19.73% to settle at 14,595 while prices declined by Rs192. Turmeric is getting support at 15,934, below which prices may test 15,832 levels, while resistance is seen at 16,154, with a move above likely to test 16,272.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15832-16272.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly this week to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15551.9 Rupees dropped by -0.92 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled lower by 1.02% at 19,940 as increased arrivals of the fresh crop from major Rajasthan producing regions eased earlier concerns regarding supply tightness. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India enabled farmers to complete harvesting activities faster than anticipated, resulting in a sharp supply spike instead of a staggered market arrival pattern. Farmers are also actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the upcoming Kharif sowing season, adding persistent selling pressure in the physical market. Daily arrivals at the benchmark Unjha mandi remained elevated at nearly 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply surplus that weighed on prices. However, downside remained limited amid concerns regarding crop quality and lower overall production estimates. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising fears of reduced availability of premium “A-grade” jeera. Unseasonal rains also delayed drying and processing activities, creating temporary disruptions in market supplies. Although carry-forward stocks are available, the quantity of high-quality “Sortex” grade material is lower compared to last year, supporting premium prices. Production estimates continue to indicate a decline in domestic output this season. Total jeera production is estimated around 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48–50 lakh bags. Crop damage from blight disease in Gujarat has further reduced both quality and yields. Globally, lower production estimates in China due to adverse weather conditions are also supporting sentiment, while expectations of strong Chinese buying interest continue to underpin the market. Jeera exports during Apr-Feb 2026 declined 15% to 166,536 tonnes compared to 195,164 tonnes last year, though February exports rose 39% on a monthly basis. In the Unjha spot market, prices ended at Rs20,019.6, down 0.46%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 9.46% to settle at 6,663 while prices declined by Rs205. Jeera is getting support at 19,850, below which prices may test 19,770 levels, while resistance is seen at 20,060, with a move above likely to test 20,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19770-20190.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20019.6 Rupees dropped by -0.46 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views