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Gold

Gold prices settled marginally higher by 0.18% at 152,530 as optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement eased concerns about prolonged inflationary pressure and aggressive interest rate expectations. Despite recent exchanges of fire between the US and Iran, both sides indicated that the month-long ceasefire remained intact, helping stabilize market sentiment. Investors also assessed the latest US labor market data, which showed the economy added 115,000 jobs last month, significantly above expectations of 62,000, highlighting continued resilience in the US economy. Following the data, markets slightly reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes by December, with CME FedWatch showing probabilities easing to around 14%. Gold prices have declined more than 10% since the conflict began in late February, largely due to rising oil prices that intensified inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of higher interest rates. However, ongoing central bank buying continued to provide underlying support to bullion. China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for the eighteenth consecutive month, with holdings rising to 74.64 million fine troy ounces by the end of March. Physical demand trends remained mixed across major consuming nations. In India, gold demand stayed subdued as higher prices discouraged retail buying ahead of the wedding season. Dealers offered discounts of up to $15 per ounce over official domestic prices, while April gold imports are expected to fall to a near 30-year low of around 15 metric tons due to unexpected tax-related disruptions for banks. In contrast, China maintained firm premiums between $14 and $20 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand. The World Gold Council reported that India’s investment demand for gold surged 52% year-on-year during the March quarter to 82 metric tons, surpassing jewellery demand for the first time on record. Globally, gold demand rose 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 metric tons during the first quarter of 2026. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 2.12% to settle at 9,206 lots while prices gained 269 rupees. Gold is getting support at 152,010, with further downside possible toward 151,485. Resistance is seen at 153,250, and a move above this level could push prices toward 153,965.

Trading Ideas:

*  Gold trading range for the day is 151485-153965.

*  Gold prices climbed amid optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement.

*  Latest US jobs report, revealed the economy added 115,000 jobs last month, indicating continued strength in the labor market.

*  China's central bank loaded up on gold for an 18th straight month in April, data from PBOC showed.

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 1.31% at 261,922, supported by easing concerns over inflation and interest rates following optimism surrounding a possible end to the Iran conflict. Market sentiment improved after stronger-than-expected US employment data reinforced confidence in the resilience of the American economy. Data showed that US employment increased more than expected in April, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%, indicating continued strength in the labor market. Following the report, expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike this year eased, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability declining to around 14% from nearly 22% a day earlier. Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious tone regarding inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated the commitment to returning inflation to the central bank’s 2% target and noted that rising energy prices had not yet influenced medium or long-term inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that inflation had accelerated since the start of the Middle East conflict and was not moving consistently toward the Fed’s target. Geopolitical tensions remained elevated as US and Iranian forces clashed again in the Gulf region and the UAE faced renewed attacks. However, President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire agreement remained intact despite recent flare-ups, helping reduce safe-haven demand pressure. Strong physical demand from China continued to support silver prices. China’s March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tons, nearly three times the historical March average. Demand was driven by retail investors shifting toward silver as an alternative to expensive gold and aggressive stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers ahead of export tax rebate changes. Higher domestic premiums in China encouraged global silver shipments into the country. As of end-April 2026, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,454 tonnes, slightly down by 0.1% from the previous month. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 0.67% to settle at 6,829 lots while prices gained 3,382 rupees. Silver is getting support at 258,570, with further downside possible toward 255,210. Resistance is seen at 265,145, and a move above this level could push prices toward 268,360.

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 255210-268360.

*  Silver gains as optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict helped ease concerns about inflation.

*  Fed’s Daly says committed to 2% inflation goal

*  Data showed that U.S. employment increased more than expected in April while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%

Crudeoil

Crudeoil prices settled marginally lower by 0.45% at 9024 as markets continued to assess geopolitical developments surrounding the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Sentiment remained relatively stable after US President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire with Iran was still intact despite renewed military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command confirmed that American forces carried out strikes on Iranian military targets after Tehran fired at US destroyers, although officials emphasized that they were not seeking broader escalation. Trump later confirmed that US vessels safely exited the strait without sustaining damage, helping to calm immediate supply concerns. Oil markets remained highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained effectively restricted since late February, disrupting global crude trade flows and forcing regional production shutdowns. The International Energy Agency estimated that nearly 14 million barrels per day of global oil supply had been affected by the conflict. Additional support came after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that Iran may have already reduced crude production by around 400,000 barrels per day due to rising storage constraints and export limitations. Meanwhile, fresh instability emerged in Libya after an emergency was declared at the Zawiya refinery amid nearby clashes. On the inventory front, US crude stocks declined by 2.314 million barrels, while gasoline inventories dropped by 2.504 million barrels, reflecting continued tightening in fuel supplies. However, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day due to weaker economic activity linked to Middle East tensions. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose by 0.86% to settle at 10,446 while prices declined by 41 rupees. Crudeoil is now finding support at 8881, with a break below potentially testing 8738 levels. Resistance is likely near 9152, and a move above this level could push prices toward 9280.

Trading Ideas:

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8738-9280.

*  Crude oil dropped as President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran remained in place.

*  The International Energy Agency warned the conflict is removing around 14 million barrels per day from global supply.

*  Iran cut back oil production by 400,000 bpd

Naturalgas

Naturalgas prices settled lower by 1.1% at 261 as the market remained under pressure from reduced demand forecasts and weaker gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities during the ongoing spring maintenance season. Additional pressure emerged from expectations of reduced exports at Freeport LNG in Texas, contributing to softer near-term demand sentiment. However, losses were partially capped by lower domestic production and forecasts for warmer temperatures later in May, which could increase cooling demand and support gas-fired electricity consumption as air-conditioning usage rises. Financial group LSEG reported that average natural gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and below the record 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025. Daily output is expected to decline further to a preliminary one-week low of 108.1 bcfd due to production curtailments by energy firms such as EQT amid persistently weak spot gas prices. Weather forecasts indicate mostly seasonal conditions through May 23, with cooling demand gradually overtaking heating demand. LSEG projected total gas demand, including exports, to decline from 99.3 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week before rebounding slightly afterward. LNG export flows also slipped to 17.2 bcfd in May compared to the record 18.8 bcfd recorded in April. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 79 billion cubic feet during the week ended April 24, broadly matching market expectations and leaving storage levels 7.7% above the five-year average. The EIA maintained its outlook for record U.S. gas production in 2026 despite expectations for weaker domestic consumption. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose by 3.28% to settle at 30,025 while prices declined by 2.9 rupees. Naturalgas is now finding support at 257.8, with a break below potentially testing 254.5 levels. Resistance is likely near 266.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward 272.5.

Trading Ideas:

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.5-272.5.

*  Natural gas eased on lowered demand forecasts and a drop in gas flows to LNG export plants so far this month

*  US gas output drops as producers like EQT cut supply amid low prices

*  LSEG projects demand to dip next week before rising with warmer weather

Copper

Copper prices settled higher by 1.59% at 1324.95 as supply concerns intensified following reports of delays in production recovery at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, one of the world’s largest copper operations. Additional support came from ongoing disruptions in sulphuric acid shipments caused by the Middle East conflict. China’s decision to suspend sulphuric acid exports from May through at least December further tightened the supply outlook, as sulphuric acid remains a critical input for copper refining operations globally. Chile, the world’s top copper producer, already reported around a 6% decline in copper production during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, even before accounting for disruptions linked to sulphuric acid shortages. Market sentiment also remained supported by falling exchange inventories. Copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 5.6% from the previous release, signaling improving physical demand conditions in China. Meanwhile, COMEX copper prices continued trading at a premium over the London Metal Exchange benchmark, encouraging additional shipments into the United States as traders monitor the possibility of fresh import tariffs from the Trump administration. However, rising logistics costs linked to the Iran conflict and already elevated U.S. inventories are expected to limit further import growth. COMEX copper inventories currently stand at 561,066 tons, more than half of total storage capacity. Despite the near-term bullish sentiment, the International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February and projected the market to remain in surplus through 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and rising secondary supply. China’s refined copper production in March increased 8.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million metric tons, although imports of unwrought copper declined 10.9%. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 9.5% to settle at 11,009 while prices gained 20.7 rupees. Copper is now finding support at 1311, with a break below potentially testing 1296.9 levels. Resistance is likely near 1333.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1342.1.

Trading Ideas:

*  Copper trading range for the day is 1296.9-1342.1.

*  Copper gains amid slight delay in the recovery of production at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, tightening supply expectations.

*  Refined copper imports into the United States this year are not likely to surpass the record shipments of 2025.

*  COMEX copper stocks are currently at 561,066 tons, more than half of its copper storage capacity of 1.05 million tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled marginally higher by 0.14% at 348.2 as easing energy prices improved sentiment across industrial metals and reduced concerns over slowing global economic growth. The market continued to draw support from tightening near-term supply conditions, with the global zinc deficit remaining one of the largest among base metals despite rising mine production. While overall global output is expected to increase this year, much of the expansion is concentrated in China as smelters in other regions continue to reduce operations due to cost pressures and operational disruptions. Further support came from declining treatment charges for zinc concentrate, highlighting tight raw material availability. Falling inventories on the London Metal Exchange and a narrowing Cash-3M contango structure also reflected improving physical market conditions. Zinc concentrate inventories at Chinese ports reportedly fell by 12,100 metric tons week-on-week, reinforcing the tight supply outlook. However, gains remained limited after Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter. Additional supply relief is also anticipated from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the gradual ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project. On the demand side, improving industrial activity data from China continued to support market sentiment, although persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept broader economic uncertainty elevated. Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting announced plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% year-on-year during the first half of the 2026/27 fiscal year. Meanwhile, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January after recording a deficit in December. Goldman Sachs expects a small market surplus in 2026 but projects tighter conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 3.63% to settle at 1,989 while prices gained 0.5 rupees. Zinc is now finding support at 346.8, with a break below potentially testing 345.3 levels. Resistance is likely near 349.7, and a move above this level could push prices toward 351.1.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 345.3-351.1.

*  Zinc climbed as easing energy prices helped reduce concerns over global growth and industrial metals demand.

*  Falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure.

*  Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.1% from last release on Apr 30.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled higher by 0.4% at 368.4 as persistent supply concerns from the Gulf region continued to support market sentiment. Ongoing disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have tightened physical availability and maintained elevated supply risk premiums across the global aluminium market. Additional support came from stronger manufacturing activity data from China, which reinforced optimism surrounding industrial metals demand and broader economic recovery prospects. Market participants closely monitored inventory trends, with aluminium stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising 2% to 492,728 tons, the highest level in six years. Despite the increase in inventories, continued weekly outflows of around 8,825 tonnes indicated persistent demand for spot material and tightening near-term supply conditions. Indonesia’s aluminium exports surged sharply in March, more than doubling from February to 88,554 metric tons, marking the highest export level since November 2023 and including an unusual shipment to the United States. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium’s Jebel Ali smelter in the UAE reportedly resumed operations closer to normal levels following earlier disruptions linked to regional tensions. Further support came after Japanese aluminium premiums for April to June shipments climbed to the highest level in 11 years at $350-$353 per ton, reflecting tightening physical supply. BOFA advanced its forecast for aluminium prices reaching $4,000 per metric ton to the fourth quarter of 2026, while JP Morgan projected a 1.9 million ton primary aluminium deficit in 2026 due to expected Middle East supply disruptions. China’s aluminium imports rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, while domestic primary aluminium production increased 2.7% to 3.85 million metric tons. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 1.56% to settle at 3,098 while prices gained 1.45 rupees. Aluminium is now finding support at 367, with a break below potentially testing 365.6 levels. Resistance is likely near 370, and a move above this level could push prices toward 371.6.

Trading Ideas:

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 365.6-371.6.

*  Aluminium gained as Gulf supply constraints persist.

*  Support also seen amid strong manufacturing activity data from China supported the demand backdrop.

*  Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 2.0% to 492,728 tons, the highest in six years.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled lower by 1.83% at 16,226 amid rising arrivals in major spot markets and increased selling pressure from farmers and stockists. Daily arrivals across key mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli accelerated significantly, creating a temporary supply glut in local markets. Farmers increased stock liquidation to generate liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, while higher arrivals of late-harvested and high-moisture turmeric triggered aggressive discounting for average-quality produce. Persistent tensions in the Middle East also continued to disrupt export logistics, prompting some overseas buyers to delay fresh commitments. The absence of fresh weather-related disruptions during the post-harvest period further reduced the weather risk premium in prices. However, downside remained limited as arrivals in several major mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana stayed below normal seasonal levels, maintaining concerns over immediate supply availability. Quality issues caused by rhizome rot in low-lying fields continued to restrict the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-grade turmeric. In major trading centers like Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists were holding back quality stocks expecting prices to move above ?18,000 per quintal. Premium “Salem Fali” turmeric continued to command strong prices near ?20,000 per quintal in select markets. Fundamentally, carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season, tightening overall availability. Export demand also remained supportive, particularly from Bangladesh and the EU for IPM-certified turmeric. India’s turmeric exports during April-February 2026 increased 1% year-on-year to 163,336 tonnes, while imports dropped sharply by 40% to 12,476 tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest surged by 54.79% to settle at 12,190 lots while prices declined by 302 rupees. Turmeric is finding support at 15,982, with further downside possible toward 15,740. Resistance is seen at 16,508, and a move above this level could push prices toward 16,792.

Trading Ideas:

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 15740-16792.

*  Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

*  Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly this week to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

*  Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15696.55 Rupees dropped by -0.81 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 1.66% at 20,145 amid rising fresh crop arrivals from major Rajasthan producing regions, easing earlier concerns over supply tightness. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India enabled farmers to complete harvesting activities faster than expected, resulting in a sharp increase in market arrivals rather than a staggered supply flow. Farmers also continued aggressive stock liquidation to raise liquidity for the upcoming Kharif sowing season, adding sustained selling pressure in spot markets. Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut that weighed heavily on prices. However, downside remained limited due to concerns regarding crop quality and lower overall production estimates. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan damaged standing crops during the harvesting stage, raising fears over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” jeera. Unseasonal rainfall across North-West India also delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily disrupting the supply chain. Market participants noted that while overall stocks are available, the quantity of premium “Sortex” quality carry-forward stock is lower than last year, supporting higher-grade prices. Production estimates continue to remain lower compared to last season. Industry estimates suggest total jeera production in India may decline to 90–92 lakh bags this year compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48–50 lakh bags. Lower acreage, reduced yields, and blight disease outbreaks in Gujarat have impacted both quality and production. Export data also reflected weakness, with jeera exports during April-February 2026 falling 15% year-on-year to 166,536 tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 13.1% to settle at 6,087 lots while prices declined by 340 rupees. Jeera is getting support at 20,040, with further downside possible toward 19,920. Resistance is seen at 20,340, and a move above this level could push prices toward 20,520.

Trading Ideas:

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 19920-20520.

*  Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased.

*  Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

*  Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

*  In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20283.65 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views