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Gold

Gold yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.08% at 152,261, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and softer crude oil prices as easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran reduced immediate inflation and aggressive rate hike concerns. Market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated the possibility of a quick resolution to the conflict with Iran, while reports suggested Tehran was evaluating a U.S.-backed peace proposal. Expectations of lower monetary tightening also supported bullion after CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike by December eased to around 12% from 16% earlier. Gold continued to receive strong structural support from central bank purchases and investment demand. China’s central bank increased its gold holdings for the eighteenth consecutive month, with reserves rising to 74.64 million fine troy ounces by March-end. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand increased 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 metric tons in Q1 2026, driven mainly by a 42% surge in bar and coin demand to 473.6 tons, the strongest quarterly level since 2013. Chinese retail investment demand remained exceptionally strong, with bar and coin purchases jumping 67% to a record 206.9 tons. In physical markets, Indian demand stayed subdued due to volatile international prices and rupee weakness, while premiums in China strengthened ahead of holiday-related stocking demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest rose 2.13% to 9,405 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs129. Gold has immediate support at 151,465, with further downside support at 150,665, while resistance is seen at 153,465 and 154,665.

Trading Ideas:

*  Gold trading range for the day is 150665-154665.

*  Gold climbed buoyed by a weaker dollar and falling oil prices.

*  The dollar hovered near its lowest in more than two months, hit in the previous session.

*  Hopes of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran tempered inflation and rate-hike concerns.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled sharply higher by 2.08% at 258,540, supported by easing inflation concerns after hopes of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement triggered a steep decline in crude oil prices. Reports suggested that the U.S. had delivered a memorandum through Pakistani mediators aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz gradually. Iran is expected to respond shortly, while broader negotiations over its nuclear program may follow in the coming weeks. The decline in energy prices reduced fears of prolonged inflationary pressures and lowered expectations for extended restrictive monetary policies by major central banks. However, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and has accelerated since the start of the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. private payrolls increased by 109,000 jobs in April 2026, exceeding market expectations and reflecting resilient labor market conditions despite slower hiring trends. On the other hand, U.S. building permits declined 11.4% in March, highlighting weakness in the housing sector. China remained a major driver for silver demand as March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tons, nearly triple the decade-average level for March. Strong retail investment demand, particularly for small silver bars as alternatives to expensive gold, along with aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of export tax changes, significantly boosted imports. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 3.36% to 6,783 contracts while prices gained Rs5,275. Silver has immediate support at 253,670 and 248,805, while resistance is seen at 264,450 and 270,365.

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 248805-270365.

*  Silver rallied on renewed hopes for a peace deal that could bring a gradual reopening of the strait.

*  Fed’s Goolsbee warned that inflation has not continued to cool toward the US central bank’s 2% target.

*  Markets trimmed bets on U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes by December to around 12% from 16%.

Crude oil

Crude Oil yesterday settled higher by 0.53% at 9,065 amid renewed concerns that the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could weaken, raising fears of further disruptions to global energy supplies. Market sentiment remained cautious after reports indicated that Iran was reviewing a U.S.-backed peace proposal intended to formally end the conflict while key issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, remained unresolved. Continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East supported crude prices despite concerns over slowing global demand. Fundamentally, strong U.S. export and production data also supported the market. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. petroleum product exports surged by 483,000 barrels per day to a record 8.224 million bpd during the week ended May 1. U.S. crude exports also climbed to an all-time high of 6.438 million bpd, while domestic crude production increased to 13.63 million bpd in February, the highest level since December. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories declined by 2.314 million barrels to 457.2 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.504 million barrels and distillate stocks declined by 1.294 million barrels, indicating firm fuel demand. However, OPEC lowered its second-quarter global oil demand forecast by 500,000 bpd due to the economic impact of Middle East tensions, though it maintained its full-year demand growth outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped 9.44% to 10,357 contracts while prices gained Rs48. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,629 and 8,194, while resistance is seen at 9,346 and 9,628.

Trading Ideas:

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8194-9628.

*  Crude oil prices amid heightening fears that the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran may be breaking down

*  Crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 million barrels in the week ended May 1, the EIA said.

*  U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week to 219.8 million barrels, the EIA said.

Natural gas

Natural Gas yesterday settled higher by 2.13% at 263.9 after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a smaller-than-expected increase in natural gas storage levels, supporting bullish market sentiment. Utilities injected 63 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 1, significantly below market expectations of 74 bcf and also lower than last year’s 104 bcf build as well as the five-year average increase of 77 bcf. The tighter-than-expected inventory data highlighted improving near-term supply-demand fundamentals in the U.S. gas market. Additional support came from declining production trends across the Lower 48 states, where output is expected to fall to a one-week low as weak spot prices prompted producers, including EQT Corporation, to reduce supply while waiting for improved price realizations. Weather forecasts indicated mostly seasonal conditions through May 22, with cooling demand gradually beginning to overtake heating demand. Meanwhile, gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities eased slightly from April’s record levels due to routine seasonal maintenance activity. Despite near-term strength, the broader outlook from the EIA remained mixed. The agency projected U.S. dry gas production to rise from a record 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 109.6 bcfd in 2026 and further to 112.6 bcfd in 2027. However, domestic gas demand is expected to decline from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 90.6 bcfd in 2026 before recovering in 2027. LNG exports are projected to continue rising steadily over the coming years. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 5.1% to 29,071 contracts while prices gained Rs5.5. Natural gas has immediate support at 256 and 248.1, while resistance is seen at 268.9 and 273.9.

Trading Ideas:

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 248.1-273.9.

*  Natural gas climbed after the EIA reported a smaller than expected storage build.

*  Utilities injected 63 billion cubic feet of gas into storage in the week ended May 1, below forecasts of 74 bcf.

*  US gas output dips as low prices prompt producers to cut production

Copper

Copper yesterday settled lower by 0.3% at 1,304.25 as profit booking emerged after recent gains driven by easing geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar, and improving demand indicators from China. Market sentiment remained supported after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of a quick resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, while Tehran was reported to be reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. Chinese demand fundamentals also remained supportive, with copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses falling sharply to 192,025 tons from mid-March levels, while the Yangshan copper premium surged more than 60% since early March, reflecting strong import appetite. Supply-side concerns further supported the medium-term outlook as Chile, the world’s top copper producer, faces risks from disruptions in sulphur flows linked to the Middle East conflict. China’s restrictions on sulphuric acid exports may impact nearly half of Chile’s refining capacity. Additionally, expanding global datacenter construction and electrification projects continue to strengthen long-term copper demand expectations. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a significant global refined copper surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February compared to 34,000 tons in January. The group now expects the global copper market to shift into a surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 and 377,000 metric tons in 2027 due to slower demand growth and higher secondary production. China’s unwrought copper imports declined 10.9% in March, although refined copper production rose 8.7% year-on-year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling as open interest increased 2.01% to 12,165 contracts while prices declined by Rs3.95. Copper has immediate support at 1,299.2 and 1,294.2, while resistance is seen at 1,312.1 and 1,320.

Trading Ideas:

*  Copper trading range for the day is 1294.2-1320.

*  Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by easing in Middle East, a softer dollar

*  Copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the SHFE have more than halved to 192,025 tons since mid-March.

*  Yangshan copper premium, is up more than 60% since early March.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled higher by 0.33% at 347.7 as hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East improved overall market sentiment and supported industrial metals. The zinc market continued to receive support from tight global supply conditions, with the current supply deficit remaining one of the largest among major base metals despite increasing mine production. Falling inventories on the London Metal Exchange and a narrowing Cash-3M contango reflected tightening near-term availability, while declining treatment charges for zinc concentrate highlighted persistent constraints in raw material supply. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 1.8% from the previous week, while port inventories of zinc concentrate dropped sharply by 12,100 metric tons, reinforcing concerns over feedstock tightness. Ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions across several regions also supported prices, although some supply relief is expected from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of the Kipushi project. Additionally, Swedish miner Boliden confirmed that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter. Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting also plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of fiscal year 2026/27. On the macro side, improving industrial activity in China supported demand expectations, although lingering Middle East tensions continued to create uncertainty. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January after a deficit in December. Goldman Sachs expects a small zinc surplus this year but forecasts tighter market conditions outside China in 2027 and 2028. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 4.88% to 2,064 contracts while prices gained Rs1.15. Zinc has immediate support at 346.2 and 344.7, while resistance is seen at 349.1 and 350.5.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 344.7-350.5.

*  Zinc gained as hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East provided relief.

*  The supply deficit for zinc is the largest among all major metals - Trafigura

*  BofA raised its 2026 price forecast for zinc by 12.7% to $3,309, saying that markets outside China should remain tight.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled lower by 0.76% at 366.95 as profit booking emerged after reports suggested that the U.S. and Iran were moving closer toward a temporary agreement to end the ongoing conflict. However, downside remained limited due to strong manufacturing activity data from China and tightening global physical supply conditions. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 52.2 in April 2026 from 50.8 in March, marking the strongest expansion since December 2020 and supporting expectations for improved industrial metals demand. Supply-side fundamentals continued to remain supportive for aluminium prices. LME registered inventories declined by 0.56% on May 7, extending the monthly fall to 12.61%, highlighting persistent tightening in spot availability. Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports also declined 7.4% month-on-month to 279,800 metric tons, while Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $350 to $353 per ton for second-quarter shipments, the highest level in 11 years due to Middle East supply concerns. JPMorgan expects aluminium prices to average around $3,500 per metric ton in the second half of 2026 and forecasts a global primary aluminium deficit of 1.9 million tons. Indonesia’s unwrought aluminium exports more than doubled in March to the highest level since November 2023, including rare shipments to the United States. Meanwhile, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium products increased 6.9% year-on-year in March, while primary aluminium production rose 2.7%. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling as open interest increased 1.84% to 3,147 contracts while prices declined by Rs2.8. Aluminium has immediate support at 364.7 and 362.5, while resistance is seen at 369.5 and 372.1.

Trading Ideas:

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 362.5-372.1.

*  Aluminium dropped on profit booking after news the U.S. and Iran were nearing a temporary agreement to end the war.

*  LME aluminium inventory drops 2,000 mt to multi-year low of 358,200 mt

*  ANZ forecasts global aluminium deficit to widen to 2.7 million tonnes in 2026

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled marginally higher by 0.41% at 16,566 amid lower-than-normal arrivals in key mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana, which continued to support near-term sentiment. Supply tightness in premium quality stocks persisted as moisture-related crop damage and rhizome rot issues reduced the availability of export-grade “Double Polished” turmeric. Strong demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and active procurement inquiries from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric also supported prices in Andhra Pradesh mandis. In addition, the Union Agriculture Ministry revised production estimates lower to 1.140 million tons, while carry-forward stocks are estimated near 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season, indicating tighter overall availability. Rising temperatures across South India are also increasing concerns over quality deterioration and weight loss in stored stocks, further supporting premium-grade turmeric prices. However, upside momentum remained capped due to accelerating arrivals in Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli mandis, creating temporary supply pressure. Farmers in Telangana and Maharashtra increased stock liquidation to generate liquidity ahead of Kharif sowing activities, while late-harvested high-moisture arrivals triggered aggressive discounting in average-quality lots. Profit-booking by large traders and stockists also added selling pressure. Export logistics disruptions linked to Middle East tensions further slowed fresh buying commitments. On the trade front, turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2026 increased 1% to 163,336 tonnes, while imports declined sharply by 40% to 12,476 tonnes. In Nizamabad spot markets, prices closed higher by 0.63% at Rs 15,825. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 4.87% to 11,435 while prices gained Rs 68. Turmeric has immediate support at 16,462 and 16,360, while resistance is placed at 16,654, followed by 16,744.

Trading Ideas:

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 16360-16744.

*  Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season

*  Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

*  Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15825 Rupees gained by 0.63 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 0.59% at 20,220 amid increased arrivals of the fresh crop from major Rajasthan producing regions. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India enabled faster harvesting activity, resulting in a sharp rise in market arrivals and easing earlier supply concerns. Farmers continued active stock liquidation to generate liquidity ahead of the upcoming Kharif sowing season, which maintained selling pressure in physical markets. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated near 28,500 bags, creating temporary oversupply conditions and weighing on prices. Export demand also remained subdued, with jeera exports during Apr-Feb 2026 declining 15% to 166,536 tonnes compared to the same period last year. However, downside remained limited due to crop quality concerns in key producing regions. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan damaged standing crops during the harvesting stage, raising concerns over lower availability of premium-grade jeera. Unseasonal rains also delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily affecting the flow of quality supplies into mandis. Market participants noted that carry-forward stocks of high-quality “Sortex” grade jeera are lower compared to last year, which continued to support premium pricing. Production estimates also remained lower on reduced acreage and weaker yields. Industry estimates suggest total cumin production this season may decline to 90-92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48-50 lakh bags. Lower crop expectations in China due to adverse weather and expectations of fresh Chinese buying interest supported overall sentiment. In Unjha spot markets, jeera prices ended lower by 0.64% at Rs 20,301.70. Technically, the market remained under long liquidation as open interest declined 4.62% to 6,252 while prices dropped by Rs 120. Jeera has immediate support at 20,130 and 20,040, while resistance is seen at 20,350, followed by 20,480.

Trading Ideas:

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 20040-20480.

*  Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased.

*  Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

*  Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

*  In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20301.7 Rupees dropped by -0.64 percent.

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