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Gold

Gold prices gained 0.83% to settle at 156,925 following the release of U.S. inflation data and continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, matching market expectations and reinforcing concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer. Additional support for gold came after renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran increased uncertainty across global financial markets. Rising crude oil prices following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz further intensified inflation fears and strengthened expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that the central bank should maintain current interest rates for now but remained open to future rate hikes if inflationary pressures from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and AI-driven investment continue to rise. Despite higher rate expectations, gold continued to attract support from strong central bank demand and safe-haven buying amid global uncertainty. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of global central bank gold purchases significantly higher, now expecting average monthly buying near 60 tonnes through 2026 due to continued reserve diversification and geopolitical risks. Although JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, the bank still expects gold to approach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 as demand strengthens in the second half of the year. Physical demand trends remained mixed across major consuming nations. In India, gold traded at discounts due to high domestic prices and weaker jewellery demand following higher import duties. However, investment demand remained exceptionally strong, rising 52% year-on-year during the March quarter and surpassing jewellery demand for the first time. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest declined sharply by 32.84% to 3,064 lots. Gold is holding support at 154,530 and 152,135, while resistance is seen at 158,240 followed by 159,555.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152135-159555.

*  Gold gained following the release of U.S. April inflation data and as markets weighed hopes of progress in Middle East peace talks

*  Data showed that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index jumped 3.8% in the 12 months through April

*  Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted a U.S. airbase in response to a U.S. attack in the port city of Bandar Abbas.

Silver

Silver prices gained 1.25% to settle at 269,537 as investors balanced improving hopes for Middle East peace negotiations against persistent inflation concerns and a cautious Federal Reserve policy outlook. Market sentiment remained supported after Federal Reserve officials continued emphasizing their focus on inflation control. Fed Governor Lisa Cook backed maintaining current interest rates while remaining open to additional hikes if inflationary pressures intensify. New York Fed President John Williams also warned that inflation could approach 4% in the near term, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment. Geopolitical uncertainty continued to support precious metals demand after President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States would not accept what he described as an unfavorable deal with Iran and rejected calls for easing sanctions. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also emphasized that restoring inflation toward the Fed’s 2% target remains a priority, while noting that the U.S. labour market has remained resilient despite ongoing energy market disruptions. Strong physical demand from China remained a major supportive factor for silver prices. China imported approximately 836 metric tonnes of silver during March, nearly triple the historical ten-year average for the month. The surge was driven by strong retail investment demand for silver bars as an alternative to expensive gold, along with aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of changes in export tax rebate policies. Elevated domestic silver premiums in China encouraged global arbitrage shipments through Hong Kong. In India, the government imposed restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products to curb rising imports and ease pressure on the rupee. India’s silver imports had surged significantly during FY 2025-26 due to strong investment demand and record ETF inflows. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased 5.7% to 10,046 lots. Silver is holding support at 263,730 and 257,915, while resistance is seen at 272,630 followed by 275,715.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 257915-275715.

* Silver rose as middle east ceasefire hopes offset hawkish Fed tone

* Key disagreements also remain unresolved, including Tehran’s insistence on maintaining control of Hormuz and preserving its nuclear program.

* ECB members viewed the April decision to keep rates unchanged as a close call and indicated they would have supported a rate hike had it been proposed.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 0.73% to settle at 8,537 following reports that the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire and begin negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. According to reports, the proposed 60-day memorandum of understanding includes guarantees for unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and plans for Iran to remove mines from the region within 30 days. The development reduced immediate fears of major supply disruptions, although the agreement still requires approval from U.S. President Donald Trump Despite the decline, underlying supply concerns continued to support the broader market outlook. The International Energy Agency warned that the global oil market could enter a “red zone” during July and August as peak summer fuel demand coincides with reduced Middle East exports and falling global inventories. The agency noted that although the market initially entered the Iran conflict with surplus supplies, global stocks are now steadily eroding. Supply disruptions from major producers also remained a key supportive factor. Russia’s crude oil production fell by 460,000 barrels per day in April compared to last year, averaging around 8.8 million bpd, partly due to intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles fell sharply by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations for a smaller decline. Gasoline inventories also dropped by 1.5 million barrels, indicating steady fuel demand. However, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from the previous estimate of 1.38 million bpd, reflecting concerns over the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 10.85% to 12,658 lots. Crude oil is holding support at 8,330 and 8,124, while resistance is seen at 8,821 followed by 9,106.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8124-9106.

* Crude oil dropped after reports claimed that the U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension

* Oil market could hit 'red zone' in July – August, IEA chief says

* Crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels, the sixth straight week of declines - API

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged 4.18% to settle at 313.9 after a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and improving short-term demand forecasts supported bullish market sentiment. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that utilities injected 92 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 22, slightly below market expectations of a 95 bcf increase. The build was also lower than the 104 bcf injection recorded during the same period last year and below the five-year seasonal average increase of 97 bcf, indicating relatively tighter supply-demand fundamentals. Additional support came from stronger LNG export demand as gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities increased to approximately 18.2 billion cubic feet per day, marking an 8% rise from the previous week. The increase followed the return of several export terminals from seasonal maintenance shutdowns, which had temporarily diverted supply back into the domestic market earlier. Improving LNG demand helped offset concerns regarding elevated storage levels. On the supply side, average gas production across the Lower 48 states eased to 109.4 bcfd during May from 109.8 bcfd in April. Lower output combined with stronger export demand helped reduce the storage surplus to nearly 6% above normal levels compared to around 7% in the previous week. However, weather forecasts indicating below-normal temperatures across California and parts of the Eastern United States through early June may limit near-term cooling demand and allow additional gas injections into storage. Long-term projections from the EIA remained mixed. The agency expects U.S. natural gas production to rise to record highs through 2027, driven by expanding output in the Permian and Haynesville regions, while domestic consumption is projected to soften slightly in 2026. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased 7.84% to 20,031 lots. Natural gas is holding support at 301 and 288.2, while resistance is seen at 321.2 followed by 328.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 288.2-328.6.

* Natural gas jumped on a smaller-than-usual weekly storage build, which followed forecasts for more demand.

* EIA said energy firms added 92 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended May 22, slightly smaller than the 95-bcf build forecast.

* However, estimated gas flows to LNG facilities reached about 18.2 billion cubic feet per day, up 8% from the previous week.

Copper

Copper prices gained 1.21% to settle at 1,360.4 as supply disruptions and tightening exchange inventories supported market sentiment. Major support came after shortages of sulfur and sulfuric acid in Chile forced several refiners to reduce operating capacity, tightening refined copper availability. Additional support emerged from declining inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses, where available copper stocks dropped to a ten-week low of 275,525 metric tons after large volumes were earmarked for delivery. However, upside remained limited as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar higher, increasing concerns about inflation and slower global economic growth. Risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets continued to cap aggressive buying interest in industrial metals. China continued to provide important support to the copper market through resilient demand and strong import activity. China’s refined copper production in April increased 1.6% year-on-year to 1.27 million metric tons, while unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons. Strong investment in high-voltage power infrastructure remained a major demand driver, with Chinese power grid spending rising 37% during January-March 2026. Meanwhile, copper concentrate imports into China fell sharply by 20% year-on-year during April, highlighting tightening raw material availability. Supply concerns also persisted globally. Copper production in Chile declined around 6% during the first quarter of 2026, while Freeport-McMoRan maintained that full production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine is still expected by the end of 2027 despite earlier recovery downgrades. The International Copper Study Group projected the global copper market to shift into a modest surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 due to slower demand growth and higher secondary production. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased 7.77% to 16,763 lots. Copper is holding support at 1,348.6 and 1,336.6, while resistance is seen at 1,367.3 followed by 1,374.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1336.6-1374.

* Copper gains as the shortage of sulfur and sulfuric acid in Chile forced major refiners to cut capacity and lower supply.

* However, upside seen limited as renewed tensions in the Middle East, fuelling inflation and slowdown concerns.

* Depletion of available copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses continued, while COMEX copper stocks saw further inflows.

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 0.8% to settle at 367.55 supported by tightening global supply conditions following major operational disruptions at key refining facilities. Strong support emerged after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, after a fire damaged critical smelting infrastructure. Additional supply concerns intensified after Glencore-owned Kazzinc reported reduced operating capacity at its zinc and lead plants in Kazakhstan following a recent explosion. Market sentiment also remained supported by already tight global refined zinc balances. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group had earlier projected a refined zinc deficit of around 19,000 tons for the current year even before the latest supply disruptions. Zinc inventories on the London Metal Exchange remained extremely low at 111,250 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption, highlighting tight physical market conditions.  However, upside remained somewhat limited by expectations of improving supply later in the year. Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter. Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting also projected refined zinc production of 108,200 metric tons during the first half of the 2026-27 financial year, up 3.2% compared to last year. Meanwhile, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 1.5% from the previous week, indicating some improvement in near-term Chinese availability. Fundamentally, the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 32,700 metric tons in March from 58,700 tons in February, reflecting improving demand conditions and tighter supply. Goldman Sachs expects global zinc demand to expand around 2% annually during both 2026 and 2027, while mine supply growth may slow considerably beyond 2027, potentially pushing markets outside China into deficit. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased 9% to 2,410 lots. Zinc is holding support at 364.2 and 360.9, while resistance is seen at 370.2 followed by 372.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 360.9-372.9.

* Zinc gained supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* Support also seen amid a low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* China's central bank will continue to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy, and strengthen financial support for expanding domestic demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.98% to settle at 387.5 amid persistent concerns over tightening global supplies and stronger industrial demand indicators from China. Market sentiment remained supported by worries surrounding reduced aluminium production from Gulf producers due to ongoing geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict. The Gulf region, which accounts for nearly 9% of global smelting capacity, continued to face operational disruptions, tightening immediate physical supply availability across global markets. Additional support came from declining inventories on the London Metal Exchange, where available aluminium stocks dropped to a one-year low of 259,625 tons following fresh cancellations in Malaysian warehouses. Tightness in nearby supply was also reflected in elevated LME cash premiums, with the cash contract premium over the three-month benchmark remaining near multi-year highs around $84 per ton. Rising alumina prices further strengthened bullish sentiment. Alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged nearly 5% to their highest level since early May due to concerns regarding bauxite supply from Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer. Guinea is reportedly considering export quotas for mining companies amid rising shipping costs, with the policy expected to be finalized in June. These developments intensified fears over raw material availability for aluminium smelters globally. China continued to provide strong demand support to the market. Industrial profits in April recorded their fastest growth since November 2023, while aluminium imports and exports both remained robust. China’s aluminium output rose 3.1% year-on-year to 3.87 million metric tons in April, while exports of unwrought aluminium and products jumped 15%, reaching the highest monthly level in at least one year. Meanwhile, Gulf aluminium production declined sharply by 35% year-on-year in April according to the International Aluminium Institute, highlighting severe supply disruptions in the region. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased 1.01% to 4,119 lots. Aluminium is holding support at 384.7 and 382, while resistance is seen at 389 followed by 390.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 382-390.6.

* Aluminium prices gained amid worries about reduced supply from the Gulf region.

* LME available aluminium stocks fell to a one-year low of 259,625 tons.

* China’s industrial profits in April grew at the fastest pace since November 2023

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower by 0.1% to settle at 16,216 amid rising arrivals and increased selling pressure from producing regions. Accelerated daily arrivals in major mandis created a temporary supply glut, while farmers increased stock liquidation to generate liquidity ahead of upcoming Kharif sowing activities. Additional pressure came from increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric, which triggered aggressive discounting in average-quality lots. Profit-booking by traders and stockists who accumulated positions at lower levels in March also contributed to the decline in prices. Export sentiment remained cautious as lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt logistics and delayed fresh export commitments from some buyers. The absence of fresh weather-related disruptions during the post-harvest phase further reduced the weather risk premium in the market. However, downside remained limited due to lower-than-normal arrivals in key producing mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana. Quality concerns linked to rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-grade turmeric. Farmers and stockists in Sangli and Nizamabad continued to hold back quality stocks in anticipation of prices moving towards ?18,000 per quintal. Premium “Salem Fali” turmeric varieties continued to command strong prices near ?20,000 per quintal in major trading centers. Fundamentally, tighter carry-forward stocks estimated near 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season continued to support long-term sentiment. Additional support came from rising demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and active procurement inquiries from Bangladesh. The Agriculture Ministry’s revised production estimate of 1.140 million tons also strengthened bullish expectations. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 1.07% to 20,745 lots. Turmeric holds support at 16,054 and 15,892, while resistance is seen at 16,464 followed by 16,712.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15892-16712.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut" in local mandis.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15683.95 Rupees dropped by -0.47 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined marginally by 0.28% to settle at 19,275 amid higher fresh crop arrivals and continued selling pressure from producing regions. Increased arrivals from major Rajasthan markets eased earlier concerns regarding tight supplies as favorable weather conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting activities faster than anticipated. The faster harvesting pace resulted in a temporary supply surge instead of a gradual arrival pattern. Farmers also continued aggressive stock liquidation to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, keeping overall market sentiment weak. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi stabilized near elevated levels of around 28,500 bags, creating visible supply pressure in physical markets. Additional pressure came from lower export demand trends, as jeera exports during Apr-Feb 2026 declined 15% year-on-year to 166,536 tonnes compared to 195,164 tonnes during the same period last year. However, downside remained limited due to concerns regarding crop quality and lower production estimates. Recent hailstorms and thunderstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged standing crops during the harvesting stage, raising fears over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” quality jeera. Unseasonal rainfall in North-West India also delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily restricting market-ready supplies. Market participants highlighted that carry-forward stocks of premium “Sortex” quality jeera are significantly lower compared to last year, supporting higher-grade prices. Fundamentally, domestic production estimates continue to remain lower than previous seasons. Industry sources estimate total cumin production this year at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output may remain around 48–50 lakh bags. Lower acreage, weak yields, and blight disease outbreaks in Gujarat have impacted overall production quality and quantity. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation as open interest declined 1.02% to 10,185 lots. Jeera is holding support at 19,170 and 19,060, while resistance is seen at 19,420 followed by 19,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19060-19560.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected, resulting in a "supply spike”.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19607.5 Rupees dropped by -1.5 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views