MCX Gold June is expected to hold above Rs152,000-Rs151,500 and move towards Rs 155,000 level -
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to hold its ground and move towards $4800 level amid safe haven buying. Rising Middle East tension and rejected peace proposals would drive safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, focus remains on key US inflation data, which is expected to rise alongside higher oil prices. Since elevated US inflation reduces the likelihood of rate cuts and strengthens the dollar, the upside for bullion may be capped. According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-bps rate cut this year stands at only 5% due to persistent inflation concerns.
• MCX Gold June is expected to hold above Rs152,000-Rs151,500 and move towards Rs 155,000 level. Only a move below Rs151,500 it would correct towards Rs149,000.
• Internation Spot Silver is hovering around $86 per ounce mark, we expect prices to rise towards $90 as long as it stays above $83 mark. MCX Silver July is expected to rise towards Rs284,000-Rs285,000 level as long as it holds above Rs270,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid supply concerns and strong demand outlook from China. Further, ongoing conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East has suspended exports of sulphur and sulphuric acid from the key region since March which is used by refiners to purify copper to produce anodes. Prices would get support on further delay in production recovery at Grasberg mine in Indonesia. On the demand front, Chinese demand has remained firm as Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China's appetite for imported materials, increased to $73 a ton.
• MCX Copper May is expected to move towards Rs1390- Rs1400 level as long as it stays above Rs1354 level.
• MCX Aluminum May is expected to hold its ground near Rs370-Rs371 level and bounce back towards Rs380 level. MCX Zinc May is likely to hold support near Rs350 level and rise towards Rs360-Rs362 level
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with positive bias amid geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns. President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest peace proposal has placed the ceasefire on "massive life support“. Further, expectation of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would hurt global oil supplies and keep prices at elevated levels. The severity of the disruption is underscored by IEA estimates that 14 million barrels per day have been removed from the market. Compounding these fears, Saudi Aramco warned of a rapid tightening in supply, with global inventories depleting at an alarming rate of approximately 100 million barrels per week.
• MCX Crude oil May is likely to hold the support near Rs 9000 level and rise back towards Rs 9660-Rs 9800 level.
• MCX Natural gas May is expected to rise towards Rs 285-Rs 287 level as long as it stays above Rs 270 level.
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