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* 2025-26 carry-forward stocks likely higher than usual due to slower exports

* Growers holding back produce anticipating higher prices

* Coffee prices have been volatile in recent months

* Exports account for over two-thirds of India’s annual output of ~3.6 lakh tonnes

* Current export permits down 10% compared to last year

India’s carry-forward stocks of coffee for 2025-26 are expected to be significantly higher than normal as exports have slowed amid high prices, and many growers are holding back produce in anticipation of further price increases. Normally, carry-forward stocks account for 5–10% of the crop, but this year they could exceed 30%. India, the seventh-largest coffee producer, exports more than two-thirds of its annual output of around 3.6 lakh tonnes. Production in 2024-25 stood at 3.63 lakh tonnes, while Coffee Board permits issued till mid-October are down roughly 10% compared to the previous year.

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