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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by 3.01% to settle at ?1,47,753 as traders booked profits following the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next nominee for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair and stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data, which lifted the dollar and pressured bullion. The Fed’s latest economic outlook has reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. December U.S. PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month, the fastest pace in three months, reinforcing concerns over sticky inflation and a prolonged higher-rate environment. Despite the near-term correction, structural support for gold remains firm. Central bank buying continues to be a key pillar, with Poland adding 102 tons in 2025 and aiming to raise reserves to 700 tons over time. China extended its gold-buying streak to 14 months, underscoring official demand as a hedge against dollar risk. Holdings in London vaults rose 2.24% in December, indicating sustained investor interest. Physical market indicators remain strong, with India and China witnessing elevated premiums due to robust investment and jewellery demand. Longer-term outlook remains constructive, with Deutsche Bank projecting gold could reach $6,000 per ounce in 2026 under a weak dollar scenario. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest plunging 26.31%. Support is seen at ?1,40,390, below which prices may test ?1,33,025. Resistance is placed at ?1,53,365, and a breakout could open the path toward ?1,58,975.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 133025-158975.

* Gold fell on profit-taking after Fed chair nominee news and PPI data lifted the dollar.

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation in December was likely well above the central bank's 2% target.

* US month-on-month producer prices rose 0.5% in December 2025, the largest gain in three months.

Silver

Silver prices corrected sharply, settling down by 9% at ?2,65,652, as aggressive profit-taking emerged following a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar after President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve Chair. The move, combined with firm U.S. producer price data, reduced expectations of near-term monetary easing and weighed heavily on the precious metals complex. The decline followed an exceptional rally last week, when silver surged to a record high of ?4,20,000 on MCX, driven by fiscal concerns, strong central-bank buying, and sustained ETF inflows. Despite the sharp correction, fundamentals remain supportive. Market sentiment continues to be underpinned by concerns over China’s new export licensing regime, with only 44 companies permitted to export silver in 2025–26. Although no direct restrictions are in place yet, China shipped about 5,100 tonnes last year, the highest since 2008. Chinese stockpiles have fallen to a decade low, while inventories at SHFE warehouses are at their weakest since 2015. Globally, silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes in December, highlighting continued investor interest. Citi has raised its short-term silver forecast to $150 per ounce, maintaining a bullish outlook relative to gold. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 17.18%. Support is seen at ?2,59,265, below which prices may test ?2,52,870. Resistance stands at ?2,78,440, and a breakout could push prices toward ?2,91,220.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 252870-291220.

* Silver plunged amid aggressive profit-taking and a decisive rebound in the US dollar

* Trump said he had nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.

* Fed held rates as expected, citing resilient economic activity and early labor-market stabilization, but noted elevated inflation and an uncertain outlook.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged higher, settling up by 0.84% at ?5,980, supported primarily by rising geopolitical risk premiums. Tensions in the Middle East intensified after the U.S. strengthened its military presence and President Donald Trump warned Iran to agree to a nuclear deal or face possible military action. Markets remain particularly sensitive to any disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global crude and LNG shipments. Additional support came from geopolitical strains in Venezuela, production outages in Kazakhstan, U.S. production freeze-offs due to severe winter weather, and tighter U.S. restrictions on Russian oil purchases. On the demand-supply front, the International Energy Agency revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast higher, now pegging growth at 930,000 bpd, while also trimming supply growth estimates, pointing to a narrower surplus. The U.S. EIA projected U.S. crude output to ease after peaking in 2025, while weekly inventory data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stocks, including declines at the Cushing hub, lending further support to prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ maintained its outlook for solid demand growth despite marginally higher output in November. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 13.56% alongside rising prices. Crude oil has support at ?5,917, with further downside seen toward ?5,853. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?6,066, and a breakout above this level could open the path toward ?6,151.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5853-6151.

* Crude oil rose amid tensions in the Middle East and production outages in Kazakhstan.

* Market attention is focused on the potential impact of these tensions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

* Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to January 27 – CFTC

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose sharply, settling up 3.66% at ?404.8, as a larger-than-expected storage draw and improving demand outlook outweighed concerns over gradually recovering production. Colder-than-normal weather forecasts extending through mid-February are supporting heating demand expectations, even though temperatures are not as extreme as those seen in late January. Supply remains relatively tight, with January production averaging below December’s record levels, despite daily output slowly recovering as freeze-offs ease. Additional support came from rising gas flows to LNG export terminals following storm-related disruptions, with reports of gas imports into the U.S. underscoring tight market conditions amid elevated prices. On the fundamentals, U.S. utilities withdrew 242 bcf of natural gas from storage for the week ended January 23, exceeding market expectations and the five-year average draw of 208 bcf. Although inventories remain 7.9% higher than last year and 5.3% above the seasonal norm, the pace of withdrawals reflects stronger heating demand. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. gas production to rise to record levels in 2026, while domestic consumption is expected to ease, even as LNG exports continue to expand. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 15.56% alongside rising prices. Natural gas has support at ?384.4, with further downside at ?364.1. Resistance is seen at ?425.3, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward ?445.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 364.1-445.9.

* Natural gas rose as a larger than expected storage draw and stronger demand outlook offset still recovering production.

* US energy firms withdrew 242 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ended January 23, 2026, more than expected

* Production remains below recent highs, with average January output down from December records.

Copper

Copper prices corrected sharply, settling lower by 4.9% at ?1,229.75, as jittery investors moved to lock in profits after the recent record high of ?1,480.30. The pullback came amid fading expectations of aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts and a steadier dollar, which reduced speculative appetite. Sentiment was also pressured by a visible build-up in global inventories. COMEX copper stocks climbed above 500,000 tonnes for the first time on record, while LME inventories rose to their highest level since May 2025, pushing total global holdings above 900,000 tonnes. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also increased to a seasonal high, signalling sluggish near-term consumption, particularly in China. On the supply side, Zambia reported an 8% rise in copper output in 2025, while Peru’s production fell over 11% year-on-year in November, highlighting mixed global supply dynamics. The ICSG reported a widening surplus in the refined copper market, with November showing a 94,000-ton surplus. However, structural support remains from long-term demand linked to energy transition and AI, and LME on-warrant stocks have dropped sharply due to continued metal flows to the U.S. Goldman Sachs raised its H1-2026 copper price forecast, citing scarcity outside the U.S., though it does not expect prices above $13,000 to be sustained. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 18.21% alongside falling prices. Copper has support at ?1,174.4, with further downside toward ?1,119. Resistance is seen at ?1,287.6, and a break above could test ?1,345.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1119-1345.4.

* Copper tumbled on profit booking with hopes for aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts starting to fade.

* COMEX copper inventories topped 500,000 tons for the first time

* London Metal Exchange stockpiles rose to their highest level since May 2025

Zinc

Zinc prices eased by 0.88% to settle at ?319.55, pressured by profit-taking and a firmer U.S. dollar as markets positioned ahead of Donald Trump’s nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The stronger dollar reduced appetite for base metals, prompting some investors to lock in gains after the recent rally. However, downside in zinc remained limited due to persistent supply-side concerns. Refined zinc production is estimated to have fallen about 2% last year despite a 6.3% rise in mined output, reflecting smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and Japan, including the closure of the Toho Zinc Annaka plant. Treatment charges have rebounded toward $100 per tonne from deeply negative levels late last year, signalling tighter concentrate availability. Inventory data underline the supply squeeze, with LME stocks down to around 110,000 tonnes from 230,500 tonnes at the start of last year, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell sharply by 10.9% last week. Scheduled maintenance shutdowns at several Chinese mines are expected to further restrict concentrate supply. On the demand side, concerns linger amid mixed Chinese macro data, even as December industrial output surprised on the upside. China’s refined zinc production hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December and 7.41 million tonnes for 2025, as smelters capitalised on higher prices. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 19%. Zinc finds support at ?311.3, below which ?302.9 may be tested. Resistance is seen at ?326.3, with a break opening the way toward ?332.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 302.9-332.9.

* Zinc dropped pressured by a stronger dollar and profit-taking as some investors locked in gains.

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 10.9% from last Friday.

* Refined zinc production was on track to fall 2% last year, despite the 6.3% jump in mined output

Aluminium

Aluminium prices corrected by 1.72% to settle at ?308.4, as profit booking emerged across the metals complex, tracking the sharp selloff in gold, silver and copper. The move was largely driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, with the dollar index rebounding above 97.14 from four-year lows after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, reinforcing expectations of a firmer monetary stance. The decline followed a strong rally on Thursday, when aluminium surged to ?361.25 on tightening global supply and improving demand sentiment. Fundamentally, the medium-term outlook remains supported by supply-side disruptions at key smelters in Iceland, Mozambique and Australia, which have constrained near-term availability. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half average aluminium price forecast to $3,150 per tonne, citing low inventories, power constraints for new smelters in Indonesia, and strong demand from electric vehicles and power grids. Optimism has also been underpinned by China’s supportive policy stance, with the central bank signaling rate and reserve ratio cuts in 2026. On the data front, global primary aluminium output rose marginally in December, while inventories showed mixed trends. Stocks increased at Japanese ports and SHFE warehouses, and China’s refined aluminium production hit a record high in December. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 13.92%. Aluminium has support at ?297.8, below which ?287.2 may be tested, while resistance is seen at ?316.2, and a breakout could target ?324.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 287.2-324.

* Aluminium dropped as profit booking triggered tracking heavy relentless fall in gold, silver and copper prices.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.1% from last Friday.

* Global primary aluminium output in December rose 0.5% year on year to 6.296 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 2.62% to settle at ?16,326, pressured by expectations of higher acreage supported by favourable rains during the ongoing sowing season. India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with increased area, though overall supply growth is expected to remain moderate as weather irregularities and localized disease issues offset acreage gains. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September caused waterlogging and disease in parts of Marathwada, impacting nearly 15% of the area and resulting in 15–20% yield losses in affected pockets. Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka were particularly impacted. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the rise in availability. Demand remains firm, supported by strong domestic consumption and steady exports to Europe and the US. Turmeric exports during Apr–Nov 2025 rose 4.88%, while imports dropped sharply by 44.5%, improving the demand–supply balance. In Nizamabad spot market, prices edged up 0.31% to ?16,508.4. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down 3.63%. Support is seen at ?16,120, below which prices may test ?15,912, while resistance is placed at ?16,648, and a breakout could push prices towards ?16,968.

Trading Ideas:

# Turmeric trading range for the day is 15912-16968.

# Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

# India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

# However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

# In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16508.4 Rupees gained by 0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged lower by 0.4% to settle at ?23,475, pressured by comfortable supplies and subdued export demand amid adequate existing stocks. The decline was largely attributed to the end of the retail season and continued inactivity from foreign buyers, with current export requirements largely met from available inventories. However, downside remained limited due to low arrivals and level-based buying, especially during the Diwali holiday period when market activity was muted. On the supply side, sowing in Gujarat has been reported at 3.98 lakh hectares, down 16.31% from last year, with delayed field readiness making it one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. At Unjha, arrivals remain very low and premium-quality cumin continues to command higher prices. Production estimates for the current season are seen lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output pegged at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, adverse weather has trimmed production estimates in China, Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan, though this has not yet translated into strong export demand for Indian jeera. Exports during Apr–Nov 2025 declined 10.3% year-on-year, though November shipments rose 22.7% over last year. In Unjha spot market, prices slipped 0.21% to ?23,818.5. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down 2.31%. Support is seen at ?23,350, below which prices may test ?23,210, while resistance lies at ?23,660 and a breakout could push prices towards ?23,830.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23210-23830.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476097 hectares.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23818.5 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.