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Our channel checks indicate that in Jul’25 pan-India average cement prices declined by a marginal ~0.5% MoM (though up ~6% YoY) to INR 374/bag. Regionally, prices fell by 1–2% MoM in the West and the South, and were largely stable in the North and the East, while they rose by ~2% MoM in the Central region. Industry demand is estimated to have grown in the low- to mid-single digits YoY, despite a favourable base, as the heavy monsoon weighed on construction activity. Notably, demand declined YoY in the central and eastern regions, while the southern region outperformed. Looking ahead, cement manufacturers are expected to attempt a price hike of INR 10–20/bag across regions in early Aug’25. While the success of these hikes remains uncertain, we see increasing prospects of price stability through the remainder of the monsoon season. Our top picks are UltraTech in largecaps and JK Cement in mid-caps.

* Pan-India prices declined by a marginal ~0.5% MoM in Jul’25

though they rose ~6% YoY, to INR 374/bag. Following the sharp price hike in Apr’25 (primarily in the South and the East), prices have gradually corrected over the past 3 months. Regionally, prices declined by 1–2% MoM in the West and the South, and were largely stable in the North and the East, while they rose ~2% MoM in the Central region. Spot prices are estimated to be ~1% lower than the average price seen in 1QFY26. Looking ahead, industry players are likely to attempt a price hike of INR 10–20/bag across regions in early Aug’25. While the success of these hikes remains uncertain, we believe the likelihood of price stability through the monsoon season is improving.

* Industry demand likely grew in low to mid-single digits YoY in Jul’25 : despite a favourable base, as the persistent heavy monsoon disrupted construction activity across several regions. Notably, demand declined YoY in the central and eastern regions, while the southern region outperformed. On a 2-year CAGR basis, pan-India cement demand growth likely to be in low single digit YoY. We expect sustainable volume growth of 6– 7% over the medium term, driven by continued government thrust on infrastructure and housing, along with improving demand from both rural and urban markets.

* Petcoke prices inch up; near-term outlook weighed down by freight and coal competitiveness: Spot international petcoke prices are currently ~3% higher than the 1QFY26 average. US petcoke spot CIF and landed prices at Indian ports stand at USD 109/tn and USD 123/tn, respectively—marking a ~15-week high, largely driven by rising freight rates. While potential freight normalisation and post-monsoon industrial recovery may support demand in select pockets, elevated shipping costs and relatively competitive coal prices are likely to remain headwinds for broader petcoke consumption across key markets.

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