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Performance In line with Expectations; Maintain BUY

Est. Vs. Actual for Q2FY26: Revenue: INLINE; EBITDA: INLINE; PAT: Largely INLINE

Change in Estimates post Q2FY26

FY26E/FY27E: Revenue: -3%/-3%; EBITDA: -3%/-2%; PAT: -4%/-1%

Recommendation Rationale

* Pharma Division – Sustained Momentum: The pharma packaging segment continued to deliver robust growth, with revenue increasing 45% QoQ to Rs 10.8 Cr, albeit on a low base (Rs 7.4 Cr in Q1FY26). Management highlighted pharma packaging as a key structural growth driver, supported by new client additions, innovative product offerings, and increasing capacity utilization (>50%). The company reiterated its FY26 revenue target of Rs 35 Cr, with a peak potential of Rs 55–60 Cr at current capacity, indicating a meaningful contribution to margin expansion over the medium term.

* F&F Segment – Strong Growth Despite Weather Disruptions: The Food & FMCG segment, including Q-Pack, witnessed a 35% volume growth in H1FY26, despite a shortened summer and persistent rainfall. Strategic diversification into non-seasonal categories has reduced dependency on cyclical demand and improved business resilience. The Panipat facility, expected to become operational in Q3FY26, will further enhance capacity and market reach, supporting continued growth momentum in Q4FY26 and beyond.

* Paints Segment – Muted Quarter, Outlook Steady: The paints division recorded modest 3% YoY growth due to heavy rains, although performance from key client Aditya Birla Group (ABG) remained healthy. With capacity expansions at Cheyyar and Panipat now complete, utilization is expected to improve in the coming quarters. The company continues to benefit from the shift toward RCPP packaging, which aligns with customers’ sustainability goals.

* Margins and Utilization: Capacity utilization dropped from 74% in Q1FY26 to 63% in Q2FY26, impacting operating leverage and EBITDA/kg. Despite the short-term moderation and seasonally weak quarter, margins remain higher YoY, supported by an improved product mix. Management expects EBITDA/kg to average around Rs 41/kg for FY26, with gradual improvement in profitability over the medium term as utilization levels improve.

Sector Outlook: Positive

Company Outlook & Guidance: The company anticipates an acceleration in volume growth over the next few quarters, supported by commissioning of new capacities and product launches in the F&F, Paints, and Pharma Packaging divisions. For FY26, a volume growth rate of 12% (earlier guidance of 12–15%) is expected, largely driven by increased contribution from the Pharma and F&F segments. With a focus on capacity optimisation and an improved product mix, the company expects to achieve EBITDA per kg of Rs 41 in FY26.

Current Valuation: 20x Sep’27E (Earlier: 23x FY27E)

Current TP: Rs 850/share (Unchanged)

Recommendation: We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Financial Performance: Mold-Tek Packaging results were broadly in line with our expectations across key metrics. Revenue for Q2FY26 stood at Rs 210 Cr, registering a 10% YoY growth, supported by steady volume expansion of 6.8% YoY and an improved product mix. EBITDA came in at Rs 39 Cr (+17% YoY/-16% QoQ), while EBITDA/kg moderated to Rs 39/kg from Rs 41.6/kg in Q1FY26 due to lower utilization. PAT stood at Rs 15 Cr, up 10% YoY, broadly meeting our estimate of Rs 16 Cr.

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SEBI Registration number is INZ000161633