Buy Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd for the Target Rs.500 by Choice Broking Ltd
Robust Business Development Plan Will Keep Pre-sales Momentum Strong
We maintain our BUY rating on MLIFE, and raise our TP to INR 500. The recent stock price correction (43% from the high) is exaggerated and provides an attractive entry opportunity for investors to play the mid—premium to premium real estate market theme in India. Sectoral tailwinds like tax breaks in the Union Budget and the recent 50bps rate cut by the RBI which would in turn lead to lower EMIs, making borrowing easier for homebuyers would benefit MLIFE.
Company specific factors that make us constructive on MLIFE are:
1. Thane and Bhandup projects to be a key turning point :
The Thane and Bhandup projects GDV is INR 70-80Bn and INR 120Bn respectively, accounting for ~45% of its total GDV (gross development value) of INR 450 Bn. Thane and Bhandup markets are a sweet spot for MLIFE due to its mid-premium to premium preference. These projects will be a mix of Commercial and Residential projects and will be launched in multiple phases over time.
2. Plotted development projects would drive healthy operational cashflows:
Post the successful launches of its maiden plot in Chennai, MLIFE is now fast-tracking second plotted project in Chennai, Project Pink in Jaipur followed by multiple launches over 12-18 months. As plotted projects have higher velocity and IRR is comparatively better than residential projects, which results in faster fund realization and healthier cash flows, supporting MLDL’s long-term growth plans.
3. IC&IC segment velocity is expected to improve:
The IC business saw income rise to INR1200 Mn (from INR 1030Mn last year) despite similar area leased (18.7 acres), reflecting higher lease rates per acre. Management expects the leasing velocity to improve, however, it is a lumpy business by nature. Management is optimistic about stronger demand in the next 2 years. The company's long-term plan remains to monetize the IC&IC business.
Valuation: Based on the SOTP valuation approach, we arrive at a target price of INR 500, factoring in the Residential Business, Integrated Cities & Industrial Clusters & (IC&IC), Operations & Maintenance (O&M) segments, as well as the company’s historical land bank.
Risks: A broad based slowdown in the domestic economy and delay in legal issues and regulatory bottlenecks.
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SEBI Registration no.: INZ 000160131
