Aviation Sector update : Air traffic declines MoM in May 25; IndiGo sees minor drop by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Air traffic declines MoM in May25; IndiGo sees minor drop
* Domestic air passenger (PAX) traffic declined ~2% MoM in May’25 to 14.1m (up 2% YoY) — it was above the pre-Covid levels. Passenger growth decreased MoM for IndiGo, Air India, and SpiceJet but increased for Akasa.
* Average domestic passenger load factor (PLF) decreased 130bp MoM in May’25. PLF declined MoM for all the airlines. The on-time performance (OTP) decreased 120bp MoM for airlines; the domestic average was 69.2% in May’25. The cancellation rate increased 90bp to 2.1% in May’25.
* IndiGo’s market share improved following the collapse of GoFirst, which ceased operations in May’23. IndiGo has maintained 60%+ share since then.
India's domestic air PAX and market share
* India's domestic air PAX decreased 3% MoM (up 2% YoY) to 14.1m in May’25. Domestic PAX stood at 9.1m for IndiGo (up 7% YoY), 3.7m for Air India group (down 7% YoY), 0.8m for Akasa (up 13% YoY), and 0.3m for SpiceJet (down 39% YoY).
* Domestic market share stood at 64.6% for IndiGo (up 300bp YoY), 26.5% for Air India group (down 250bp YoY), 5.3% for Akasa (up 50bp YoY), and 2.4% for SpiceJet (down 160bp YoY).
Domestic industry’s PLF and OTP
* Domestic PLF stood at 76.3% in May’25 (77.6% in Apr’25 and 72.8% in May’24). PLF stood at 85.1% for IndiGo (down 330bp YoY), 80.2% for Air India group (down 670bp YoY), 91.4% for Akasa (up 110bp YoY), and 84% for SpiceJet (down 10pp YoY).
* The average OTP for domestic airlines at the top six airports was at 69.2%. OTP stood at 84% for IndiGo, 74.7% for Air India group, 78.7% for Akasa, and 50.1% for SpiceJet
Other highlights
* Air turbine fuel (ATF) price for Jun’25 was at INR83,073/klit (down 13% YoY/down 3% MoM). For 1QFY26, ATF price stood at INR86,000, while it was INR93,767 for 4QFY25 (down 7% QoQ and 13% YoY).
* Brent crude average price for Jun’25 stood at USD72.1/bbl (USD64.4/bbl in May’25 and USD68.2/bbl in 1QFY26).
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